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What Turkey's judicial row reveals?
By Ibon Villelabeitia
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 21 - 02 - 2010

A row within the judiciary has exposed a power struggle between Turkey's government and hardline secularists. Investors are watching the political infighting with concern.
Below are some some questions and answers about the dispute and what can happen next:
Who are in the two camps?
Turkey's powerful judiciary, along with the military, have traditionally been bastions of the conservative secular establishment. They regard the AK Party government with suspicion. While generals have carried out four coups since 1960, reforms undertaken to help Turkey's EU bid have hobbled the military. The battleground between the secularists and the AK has shifted to the courts, which liberals criticize for resisting democratic changes.
* On the flip side, critics accuse the AK Party of trying to pack the judiciary with supporters in order to strengthen a grip on state institutions. The party, which ended the secularists' decades-old grip of power in 2002, has a large parliamentary majority and an ex-member, Abdullah Gul, is president.
What are they arguing about?
The dispute erupted after Ilhan Cihaner, a prosecutor in the eastern city of Erzincan, was formally arrested on Wednesday. He was charged with membership of the so-called Ergenekon ultra-right militant group. In 2007, Cihaner launched a probe into Islamist brotherhoods in Erzincan. Critics say his arrest was politically motivated.
In a decision the government branded a “severe blow to democracy”, the secularist Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors struck back by suspending the prosecutors who ordered Cihaner's arrest. One of the suspended prosecutors had, according to Turkish media, been investigating an army general and other senior military officers for links to the Ergenekon network. The board is known for its opposition to the AK Party.
What is ‘Ergenekon'?
Named after a mythical valley where ancient Turks lived, the shadowy, ultranationalist “Ergenekon” organization allegedly plotted to overthrow Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's AK Party government. More than 200 people, including retired and active military officers, lawyers, academics and politicians, have been charged with belonging to Ergenekon.
The case has polarized Turkey and some people even question whether the group exists. Some say the investigation offers an opportunity to unearth the murky activities of a “deep state” – clandestine elements in the security forces and state bureaucracy who oppose democratic reforms. Government critics, however, say the investigation is being used to intimidate secularist opponents of the AK Party.
What can happen next?
The government on Thursday threatened to call a referendum on constitutional reforms aimed at curbing the powers of judges and prosectuors entrenched in the judicial bureaucracy.
Any attempt at constitutional reforms could precipitate early general elections, although Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc has denied there were any such plans. General elections are scheduled for 2011.
Media has speculated that Turkey's Chief Prosecutor Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, who narrowly failed to close down Erdogan's party in 2008 on the grounds that it contravened the country's secular constitution, might make another attempt to ban the party. Considered by hardline secularists as the keeper of the grail, the stern, no-nonsense Yalcinkaya has announced he was probing the motives for Cihaner's arrest. Any new closure case could precipitate early elections and bring about a repetition of the intense market jitters seen in 2008.
Is there a risk of a major confrontation?
Crisis-prone Turkey has managed to pull back from the brink several times in the past. The National Security Council (NSC), which brings together Turkey's civilian and military authorities, met on Friday and could have soothed tensions, though its statement made no mention of the judicial row. Analysts say risks of a military intervention are very low.
What are investors saying?
Fears of political uncertainty rippled through financial markets on Thursday, but investors are mostly taking a ‘business as usual' attitude while following developments closely for any sign of a serious escalation. Bouts of political and institutional instability have long weighed on the $608 billion economy. On Friday, Standard & Poor's upgrade


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