President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's chosen candidate for Brazil's election in October, Dilma Rousseff, is closing the gap on the front-runner in the race, buoyed by a roaring economy and growing party support. Until four months ago, Lula's chief of staff trailed Sao Paulo state Gov. Jose Serra, a veteran politician of the centrist PSDB party, by 30 percentage points in opinion polls. But Brazil's economy, Latin America's largest, bounced back strongly from the global financial crisis and Rousseff gained media exposure beside the popular Lula, improving her electoral chances. A new opinion poll out this week showed Rousseff drawing within about 5 percentage points of Serra. The poll had Serra at about 33 percent and Rousseff at about 28 percent, with other challengers trailing far behind. The election is set for Oct. 3 and the winner takes office Jan. 1. “Dilma has reset the scoreboard, the race is now on,” said Ricardo Guedes, director of the Sensus polling firm. Just six months ago, Rousseff's candidacy looked uncertain. The economy was still sputtering and the former leftist militant was battling lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system, of which doctors say she has been cured. Even Lula's ruling Workers' Party, or PT, had not fully accepted Rousseff, a newcomer to its ranks. Today, she is quickly gaining support from most parties in Lula's broad coalition and the PT is expected to formally endorse her later this month. Rousseff's ascent has had little impact on financial markets. Neither she nor Serra is seen as breaking with Lula's main economic polices – a free-floating currency, inflation targets, and a primary budget surplus to service public debt. Analysts say Serra is more likely to heighten private sector participation in the economy and distance himself from some of Lula's left-wing allies abroad. “Of course they differ somewhat but nobody in the market believes either would upset economic stability,” said Luiz Guilherme Piva, director at LCA consulting firm in Sao Paulo. The PSDB has complained that Rousseff was using taxpayer money to campaign illegally by joining Lula on his travels around this vast country. Serra previously served as mayor of the city of Sao Paulo and is expected to confirm his candidacy next month. Lula's camp will try to link him with the now unpopular government of Lula's predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, in which he served as health minister and planning minister. The expanding economy is forecast to generate more than 1.5 million new payroll jobs this year and, along the way, just as many potential government supporters. Economic growth, tax breaks, and social welfare under Lula have not only pulled nearly 20 million Brazilians out of poverty but also boosted the middle class and many businesses. “There are more jobs – most people are doing better with Lula, so I think it's better for Dilma to carry on,” said Francisco Teixeira, a mason at a Brasilia construction site. Rousseff has plenty more working in her favor. Lula, the most popular and charismatic president in Brazil's recent history, plans to campaign aggressively for Rousseff. And based on the size and number of parties backing her, she would also have twice Serra's free air time on radio and television, bolstering her name-recognition. Serra is already known nationwide, partially because of his failed 2002 election campaign against Lula. The centrist PMDB party, the largest in both houses of Congress, has signaled it will back Rousseff in exchange for naming her running mate, and other parties are following suit. Candidates potentially vying with Rousseff for the same votes have lost ground. Former Ceara state Gov. Ciro Gomes fell more than 5 percentage points to 12 percent in this week's poll, while former environment minister Marina Silva of the Green Party has less than 7 percent. Still, Rousseff, a trained economist who has never run for public office, faces her own hurdles. With the stiff appearance and monotonous speech of a technocrat, she often struggles to connect with her audience. That, analysts say, could cost her votes in a country where personalities can outweigh campaign issues.
