A spate of border skirmishes between Pakistani and Indian forces could further strain ties between the nuclear-armed rivals, and complicate US efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. Border skirmishes underline long-standing mistrust between Pakistan and India, which have fought three wars since their independence in 1947.There have been exchanges of fire between Pakistani and Indian forces this month. As usual, each blamed the other for provoking the incidents. Before the ceremonies of India's 61st Republic day kicked off, Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged fire along their border in Kashmir. The cease-fire violations came a day after Union Home Minister P Chidambaram described Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's comment that his country could not guarantee against another 26/11 attack on India, as an irresponsible statement. He added that if there was another attack from Pakistani soil, not only India but the whole world would hold Pakistan responsible. Chidambaram said: “Gilani is the prime minister of that country. Ordinarily, I should not comment on a prime minister”s statement, but with great respect, that was a very irresponsible statement.” Armies of the two South Asian neighbors used to frequently exchange fire across the LoC before they agreed on a ceasefire in Kashmir in 2003. Nothing specific triggered the incidents. But both sides have been talking tough in recent weeks. Recent remarks from Indian army chief General Deepak Kapoor that his country was capable of fighting Pakistan and China at the same time raised alarms in Pakistan, although Indian analysts said his comments had been distorted. Pakistan recently expressed concern about a “massive” buildup of arms by India, warning it could jeopardize a regional balance. The latest tension could reduce the chances of reviving a 5-year-old peace process India suspended after attacks by Pakistan-based militants in Mumbai in 2008. Analysts do not expect any progress unless India is satisfied Pakistan is taking strong action against the militants behind the Mumbai attack. Indian officials say the situation has not basically changed since the Mumbai attacks. Tension remains high but India has taken a wait-and-see approach to Pakistan. There is little point, military and government officials say, in going an extra diplomatic mile while Pakistan is so unstable and it is unclear who is in charge. Deeply unpopular Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is at odds with the powerful Pakistani military and he could be further weakened if his eligibility for office is challenged in court. India knows it has more to lose by an aggressive stance to Pakistan, and is more concerned with focusing on its growing economic and political influence on the global stage, something that irks Pakistan. The United States would be dismayed over an escalation of tension between Pakistan and India as it struggles to stabilize Afghanistan. Washington wants ties to improve so Pakistan can focus on helping fight an insurgency in Afghanistan supported by militants on the Pakistani side of the border, especially now that US President Barack Obama plans to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan. It's a complex and volatile regional equation. Pakistan and India are vying for influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan is resisting US pressure to dismantle militant groups, including Afghan Taliban based on its soil, because it sees them as potential allies in its rivalry with India. Pakistan accuses India of fomenting a separatist insurgency in its southwestern Baluchistan province on the Afghan border. Border clashes have been sporadic for decades and have never sparked a war. But with relations strained since the Mumbai attacks, there is always a risk of heavier exchanges of fire though war is not likely. There is a danger too of Al-Qaeda trying to orchestrate another Mumbai-style attack which could lead to war and further its aims in the region. Analysts say Al-Qaeda and its allies want to provoke Pakistan-India confrontation because it would force Islamabad to withdraw troops from its western border with Afghanistan and deploy them on the eastern frontier with India.
