Ukraine readied for a weekend presidential election with tension rising Friday as fiery Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko renewed attacks on the once-discredited Viktor Yanukovich, now on the comeback trail. Most analysts said the two — adversaries since the 2004 “Orange Revolution” in which she was eulogized as a national savior and he was disgraced by a rigged election — were still the front-runners in Sunday's poll. No candidate is expected to poll the 50 percent vote required for outright victory. Yanukovich, 59, a former prime minister backed by wealthy industrialists, is expected to coast to a comfortable lead in Sunday's vote, with Tymoshenko in second place. But analysts say he will require much more than a 10 percent lead to be sure he can stop Tymoshenko — an energetic, PR-savvy performer — overtaking him in a runoff set for Feb. 7 and denying him the presidency for the second time. The former Soviet republic of 46 millions must decide on a leadership that will help it find its place in mainstream Europe and, at the same time, navigate a prudent course in relations with its old master Russia. Moscow ties have nose-dived under pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, who was propelled to power by the Orange Revolution but is now expected to burn out in the first round after five years of ineffectual leadership. Any new future leadership will also have to revive a shattered economy and take control of collapsing state finances that have been propped up by a $16.4 billion International Monetary Fund bail-out program. The West might now prefer to forget its old animosity toward Yanukovich, tagged a pro-Moscow stooge in 2004, if he comes to power and brings stable leadership after the political disarray of the Yushchenko years. The European Union, with which Ukraine is seeking closer integration, has been particularly frustrated at the political turmoil in Kiev. “The EU should neither cross out the possibility of coming to terms with Viktor Yanukovich, nor should it rest too much hope in Yulia Tymoshenko,” Pawel Zerka, an analyst at DemosEuropa think-tank in Warsaw, wrote in a commentary. He saw Yanukovich as a pragmatist who may take a slower approach to rapprochement with the EU, while Tymoshenko was more Euro-enthusiastic but also more unpredictable. Though Yanukovich can remain confident of strong support in the industrial east and in the south, there may be question marks over the real level of support enjoyed by Tymoshenko. The stylish, 49-year-old Tymoshenko, who has run a glitzy campaign of pop jingles and populist slogans, has been target of nonstop attacks by her former patron, Yushchenko. He says she is out to disrupt the election and seeks absolute power. Some of this may have hurt her campaign. A Russian poll conducted in Ukrainian towns showed she might even be trailing in third place slightly behind former central bank chief Sergey Tigipko. Some analysts saw real prospects of a challenge by Tymoshenko to any victory by Yanukovich — either appealing to the courts or even going as far as trying to bring people out on to the streets as she did in 2004. Referring to Tymoshenko's charges that the Yanukovich camp had laid the ground for massive vote-rigging in the east, brokerage Renaissance Capital said in a note Friday: “We believe Tymoshenko will continue to push this topic in the media in order to encourage people to take to the streets in protest.” Much will hinge on the verdict given on the election by the army of international observers who have poured into Ukraine and prepared on Thursday to fan out across the snow-bound country. A spokesman for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said observers would hand down their collective view on Monday.
