Over 1 million pilgrims benefit from golf cart service at Grand Mosque during Ramadan    Visitors welcomed with Eid initiative at Thee Ain Heritage Village in Al-Baha    Tebuk emir reviews rain response in Tayma    Saudi Arabia considers rent cap as part of major real estate reforms    Messi's bodyguard banned from touchline at Inter Miami games    Screen time in bed linked to insomnia, study finds    Le Pen vows to appeal political ban, calls verdict a 'denial of democracy'    Death toll from Myanmar earthquake rises to 2,719 as rescue efforts continue    Russia, Ukraine trade blame over new energy strikes    Putin orders Russia's largest military call-up in over a decade    Albania hosts MWL chief for Eid sermon at largest mosque in the Balkans    Haramain High-Speed Railway transports over 1.2 million passengers during Ramadan    Saudi Transport Authority says passengers can ride for free if taxi meters are off    Ministry of Education forms 425 community partnerships with SR653 million impact    Mexico bans junk food in schools to fight childhood obesity epidemic    Sweet sales surge ahead of Eid as Saudi chocolate imports top 123 million kg in 2024    Saudi creatives shine at Jeddah's Fawanees Nights with art, fashion, and storytelling    T1 CEO confirms Gumayusi's return for LCK Spring after lineup shakeup    100 Thieves claim Marvel Rivals Invitational NA crown as 2025 scene heats up    Bollywood actress vindicated over boyfriend's death after media hounding    Saudi Arabia hold Japan to goalless draw in Saitama to stay in World Cup hunt    Grand Mufti rules against posting prayers and preaching in mosques on social media    King Salman prays for peace and stability for Palestinians in Ramadan message King reaffirms Saudi Arabia's commitment to serving the Two Holy Mosques and pilgrims    Bollywood star Saif Ali Khan 'out of danger' after attack at home in Mumbai    Exotic Taif Roses Simulation Performed at Taif Rose Festival    Asian shares mixed Tuesday    Weather Forecast for Tuesday    Saudi Tourism Authority Participates in Arabian Travel Market Exhibition in Dubai    Minister of Industry Announces 50 Investment Opportunities Worth over SAR 96 Billion in Machinery, Equipment Sector    HRH Crown Prince Offers Condolences to Crown Prince of Kuwait on Death of Sheikh Fawaz Salman Abdullah Al-Ali Al-Malek Al-Sabah    HRH Crown Prince Congratulates Santiago Peña on Winning Presidential Election in Paraguay    SDAIA Launches 1st Phase of 'Elevate Program' to Train 1,000 Women on Data, AI    41 Saudi Citizens and 171 Others from Brotherly and Friendly Countries Arrive in Saudi Arabia from Sudan    Saudi Arabia Hosts 1st Meeting of Arab Authorities Controlling Medicines    General Directorate of Narcotics Control Foils Attempt to Smuggle over 5 Million Amphetamine Pills    NAVI Javelins Crowned as Champions of Women's Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) Competitions    Saudi Karate Team Wins Four Medals in World Youth League Championship    Third Edition of FIFA Forward Program Kicks off in Riyadh    Evacuated from Sudan, 187 Nationals from Several Countries Arrive in Jeddah    SPA Documents Thajjud Prayer at Prophet's Mosque in Madinah    SFDA Recommends to Test Blood Sugar at Home Two or Three Hours after Meals    SFDA Offers Various Recommendations for Safe Food Frying    SFDA Provides Five Tips for Using Home Blood Pressure Monitor    SFDA: Instant Soup Contains Large Amounts of Salt    Mawani: New shipping service to connect Jubail Commercial Port to 11 global ports    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Delivers Speech to Pilgrims, Citizens, Residents and Muslims around the World    Sheikh Al-Issa in Arafah's Sermon: Allaah Blessed You by Making It Easy for You to Carry out This Obligation. Thus, Ensure Following the Guidance of Your Prophet    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques addresses citizens and all Muslims on the occasion of the Holy month of Ramadan    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



US seen sidelining Netanyahu on Iran
By Dan Williams
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 26 - 12 - 2009

Israel will find itself diplomatically sidelined and militarily muzzled as the United States pursues a nuclear deal with Iran next year, according to a closed-door war game at Israel's top strategic think tank. Not even a warning shot by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — the simulation featured an undeclared Israeli commando raid on Iran's Arak heavy water plant — would shake US President Barack Obamas' insistence on dialogue.
Israel's archfoe, meanwhile, will likely keep enriching uranium, perhaps even winning the grudging assent of the West.
“The Iranians came out feeling better than the Americans, as they were simply more determined to stick to their objectives,” said Giora Eiland, a former Israeli national security adviser who played Netanyahu in the Nov. 1 war game at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
Reflecting Israel's relative isolation, Eiland and his team spent much of the simulation sequestered from the multilateral talks in the snug, three-story INSS building.
“Netanyahu” did have hallway encounters with President Barack Obama — played by Zvi Rafiah, an Israeli ex-diplomat with extensive US ties. But their chats were hasty and hazy.
“Our leverage over the Americans, when we could prise them away from the Iranians and Europeans and others, was limited,” Eiland told Reuters. “Pretty much the only card we had to play was the military action card. And that's a faded card.”
Assumed to have the region's sole atomic arsenal, Israel has hinted at preemptive airstrikes as a last resort for denying Iran the means to make a bomb. But many experts believe Israel would be tactically stymied and loath to cross Washington, which is wary of unleashing a fresh Middle East conflict. “I care about Israel. I must defend Israel. But Israel cannot act unilaterally,” said Rafiah, channelling Obama.
The simulation — in which several serving Israeli officials took part on condition their names would not be made public — was run by Emily Landau, a senior INSS policy expert. Reuters obtained a first look at the conclusions after they were passed to the Netanyahu government.
“The idea was to create a situation whereby the Americans try a new, bilateral approach to Iran — both in terms of curbing its nuclear project and finding a way of satisfying its other demands,” said Landau, who sees little future for UN Security Council sanctions given Russian and Chinese balking.
An Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman said the war game results would be incorporated in internal strategic assessments. Such papers are not generally shared with the United States.
As it happened, the war gamers hunkered down in long-set stances: Iran entertaining negotiations while refusing to give up nuclear projects it says are peaceful; the United States talking tough but avoiding outright threats; and Israel fuming.
Aharon Zeevi-Farkash, a former chief of Israel's military intelligence who played Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, envisaged Tehran staying on its nuclear track “unless facing a threat to the survival of the regime”.
“That just wasn't forthcoming from the Americans or their coalition,” Zeevi-Farkash said, adding that “Obama” should have buttressed negotiations by boosting the US naval deployment in the Gulf or persuading India to slash its business ties to Iran. According to Zeevi-Farkash, Iran would be unlikely to launch a nuclear attack on Israel, preferring to use such weaponry to protect against invasion and wield regional clout. As such, a preemptive Israeli strike could spur Iran to get the bomb.
“Iran would argue that it was the victim of international aggression, and appeal for foreign understanding,” he said, adding that, as Khamenei, he had kept open communications with other world powers while negotiating with the United States.
The simulation saw brief brinkmanship after the imagined Israeli sabotage at Arak. “Khamenei” responded by dispatching a Revolutionary Guards commander to Syria and Venezuela, flaunting Iranian influence near the Israeli and US orbits.
To the dismay of “Netanyahu”, “Obama” did not answer this with force, though he did extend security guarantees to Israel.
Eiland said the simulation pointed to an eventual US-led shift to a policy of allowing Iran to continue enriching uranium and of “containment” should Iran eventually gain nuclear arms.
Israel would have to go along with its US ally, Eiland said: “Israel cannot act alone here. An American-Iranian deal would divest Israel of the ability to attack Iran.”


Clic here to read the story from its source.