Sworn enemies Israel and Hamas seem equally eager to trade an Israeli soldier held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners, but anxious to avoid political backlashes at home over the terms of any swap. Their dilemmas, fashioned by decades of conflict and symptomatic of the fear and lack of trust that will continue to shape the region, explain why three and a half years after guerrillas snatched Gilad Shalit on the Gaza-Israel border, the soldier and some of the 11,000 Palestinians held in Israeli jails are still uncertain whether they might soon be released. The 1.5 million people of the Gaza Strip are also watching keenly, aware that freedom for Shalit may be followed by Western pressure on Israel to ease a blockade that has blighted life in the coastal enclave since Hamas seized the soldier in 2006. Behind-the-scenes talks mediated by Egypt and, recently, by Germany have seesawed from optimistic assessments a deal was close, to reports the negotiations may have failed. Israel knows any deal will seem lopsided, as Hamas – releasing their only prisoner – demand freedom for hundreds of Palestinians. Hamas needs to bring home, or at least win freedom in exile for, big names and big numbers after losing over 3,000 Gazans, including hundreds from allied militant groups, in fighting with Israel since Shalit's capture, including in a war this year. “The popular pressure is enormous and they are backing Hamas not to make concessions. Hamas has no choice but to stick to its demands,” said Mustafa Al-Sawaf, a writer in Hamas-ruled Gaza. For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces contradictory pressures over Shalit, whose case is a national cause celebre due largely to a compulsory draft for 18-year-olds that relies on a sense of motivation and solidarity. Thousands have held protests demanding his freedom. But Netanyahu also faces demands, especially from right-wing Israelis, not to pay too high a price for the soldier by releasing key figures Hamas wants freed but whom Israel blames for masterminding suicide bombings that have killed hundreds. Israel has “already surrendered” to Hamas, Israeli columnist Ben-Dror Yemini wrote in Maariv this week. He charged that freeing too many prisoners “would encourage further violent conflict against Israel, and deal a serious blow to deterrence. Lopsided deal Israel, citing public demands that it protect its conscript soldiers at almost any cost, has set precedents showing a readiness to swap hundreds of the enemy for one of its own. Among the most dramatic was in 1985, when it freed 1,150 prisoners for three soldiers held by Palestinian guerrillas in Lebanon. That precedent, however, is one that weighs on Netanyahu today, analysts believe, since it backfired on the government. Some militants freed in that swap played key roles in a Palestinian uprising that broke out two years later – and the Labour party was voted out of office the following year. Analysts say that when a later Labour prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin, was offered a swap in the 1990s for Ron Arad, an airman captured in Lebanon, he balked at repeating Labour's experience of the 1980s – but was then criticized by Israelis for failing Arad, whose fate remains a mystery to this day. Still, since 2004 Israel has freed more than 400 prisoners in two separate swaps, for an Israeli businessman and the bodies of half a dozen soldiers. Three months ago, it freed 20 women prisoners in exchange for a “proof of life” video of Shalit. Samir Kuntar, reviled in Israel for a 1979 attack in which four members of a family were killed, went free in a 2008 deal with Lebanon's Hezbollah for the bodies of two soldiers. Under wraps Both Israel and Hamas are keeping the bargaining under wraps. Sources in Gaza said the talks hit a snag a few days ago over some 50 names of leading militants whose freedom Hamas demands in exchange for Shalit, from a list said to top 400. Earlier Israel was said to have agreed to 160 names on the list. An Israeli political source said the army was concerned that militants previously released into the Israeli-occupied West Bank had managed to elude attempts to keep tabs on them. Controversial names on Hamas's list include Marwan Barghouthi, a leader of Hamas's secular rival Fatah whom Israel jailed for life for planning attacks that killed dozens. In a twist revealing how Gaza's fate is tied to poisonous internal Palestinian politics, supporters of Fatah leader and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas have had to deny Abbas is pressing Israel to keep Barghouthi, who has warmer relations with Hamas and could be a challenger to Abbas in elections next year. Israel, and its ally the United States, also share a disquiet that Barghouthi could meld the diplomatic approach taken by Abbas towards Israel with the armed confrontation favored by Hamas.
