The US envoy for North Korea is making his rare visit to North Korea Tuesday where he will try to revive slumbering talks on ending Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. Here are some questions and answers about the visit. What could happen at the broader nuclear talks? The United States and South Korea expect the North at least to pick up where it left off when it walked out on the deal more than a year ago. This means it should resume taking apart its Soviet-era Yongbyon nuclear plant that makes arms-grade plutonium and allow international inspectors back into the country to verify claims Pyongyang made about its nuclear program. As it has done many times before, North Korea may offer promises but not implement them. What can reasonably be expected? North Korea will likely announce after the visit that it is willing to return to dormant international talks aimed at having it scrap its nuclear arms program in exchange for aid to fix its broken economy and an end to its global ostracism. Officials in Seoul have played down the possibility the visit will lead to a breakthrough in the nuclear talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States. Bosworth is expected to meet top North Korean officials but not leader Kim Jong-il. How much pressure is on North Korea? Due to its troubled economy, North Korea is facing more pressure than at any point in the recent round of nuclear negotiations that started in 2003. From last year, the North, with an estimated yearly GDP of $17 billion, has lost out on more than $1 billion in aid from the South due to its foot-dragging on disarmament. Fresh UN sanctions imposed after North Korea's nuclear test in May are likely to have done more damage, by cutting into arms sales, a vital source of foreign currency that some estimates say is worth well over $1 billion a year. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il needs cash to win the favor of senior cadres as he prepares for succession in the communist dynasty and to implement his pledge to rebuild the state's economy by 2012. This may force him to make concessions at the nuclear talks. Few expect the North's current leaders to give up nuclear weapons, which Pyongyang regards as its main leverage over what it sees as a hostile United States and also the crowning achievement of Kim's “military first” rule. How much pressure is on Obama? At this point, not much. By maintaining the status quo, his administration is able to keep squeezing the North economically. Obama's team may not want to take on North Korea, especially with the war in Afghanistan, troubles in Iraq and Iran and the domestic healthcare debate dominating its agenda. But North Korea does not like to be ignored and it may try to force Obama's hand with moves that stoke security concerns in economically vibrant Asia that could include missile launches, military skirmishes or even a nuclear test.
