Southeast Asian leaders and some Western diplomats see opportunities for a breakthrough in the political stalemate in military-ruled Myanmar, but there are few signs of change on the ground and experts advise caution. Long-awaited elections are set for next year, the last stop on Myanmar's “road map” to democracy, but it remains unclear what civilian rule will look like after almost 50 years of army rule. After a historic Nov. 15 meeting between US President Barack Obama and Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein, the highest-level American contact with the military junta since the 1960s, veteran Myanmar-watchers say the junta has shown no substantive signs of softening its stance on dissidents. Rights groups and exiles report a rise in arrests of political activists and students, and stubborn doubts over whether political prisoners, including opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, will be released even under pressure from Washington. “There should be a sense of caution. We have been here before,” said Danny Richards, senior Asia editor and economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, referring to the junta's release of Suu Kyi in 1995 and again in 2002. The Nobel Peace Prize winner, detained for 14 of the last 20 years, was sentenced to a further 18 months in August. Her party has yet to decide whether to participate in the elections. “The military have often shown themselves to be keen to take a more conciliatory stance towards Aung San Suu Kyi and the opposition, and then when international pressure fades they go back to their hardline stance,” he said. The junta has promised Obama, Southeast Asian leaders and Western diplomats that the vote will be free, fair and inclusive. But with no date set, electoral laws yet to be drafted and opposition politicians still in jail, more questions than answers surround the first parliamentary elections in the resource-rich Southeast Asian country in 20 years. What is not in doubt, analysts say, is that the junta will do whatever it takes to ensure that real control over the former British colony will remain with the military or its proxies. To be freed, Suu Kyi would probably have to agree to terms restricting her from playing a significant role in the elections, said Aung Zaw, editor of Thai-based magazine Irrawaddy, who has maintained contacts in Myanmar. “I don't see any signs that they are releasing more political prisoners,” he said. “If they release her, it's very difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.” He said he believes the regime miscalculated Suu Kyi's still-potent influence in the country and in her National League for Democracy (NLD) party when they last released her in 2002. “But if Burmese take a chance and realize this is a small window of opportunity, it could happen. In that scenario, they would have reached some sort of agreement with her. I don't think they will release her just like that. It's too risky for them before the election. She is still quite popular.” Obama personally demanded the release of Suu Kyi and other political prisoners during his meeting with Thein Sein in Singapore. That followed signals from Myanmar it may be softening its stance on Suu Kyi, daughter of General Aung San, a Burmese national hero assassinated in 1947. A senior official from the Foreign Ministry was quoted in November saying Suu Kyi could be released soon to help organize her party for elections. But the official, Min Lwin, told Reuters he had been misquoted. He declined further comment on the matter. That came after Myanmar's prime minister told Southeast Asian leaders on Oct. 25 that Suu Kyi might be able to participate in politics again, according to leaders present at the meeting. Adding to suggestions of a detente with the generals, Suu Kyi has been allowed to meet the junta's liaison officer and foreign diplomats, including US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, the State Department's top Asia official. “We are really hoping the cup is half-full,” Andrew Heyn, British Ambassador to Myanmar, told foreign journalists in Hanoi. “But for us to feel that there is real progress, we'd need to see more,” he added. “I mean, at its worst, what you could be talking about here is quite effective window-dressing that looks quite good but doesn't actually deliver anything.” Reports of a recent crackdown in Yangon, the former capital and Myanmar's biggest city, underscore those concerns. Amnesty International issued a critical report last week on the arrest of 10 political activists and journalists in recent weeks for accepting overseas donations for survivors of Cyclone Nargis, which killed 140,000 people in the country last year. “The 10 – whom Amnesty International considers prisoners of conscience – were among at least 41 dissidents arrested last month as part of a broader crackdown,” the rights group said. The report was backed up by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a group of former Burmese detainees who track those behind bars in the country. It said authorities arrested up to 50 people in a security crackdown in October. The new constitution leaves little doubt the military will run the show. The military has reserved 25 percent of house seats for itself, along with control over key ministries and appointments. The armed forces chief will outrank the elected president and be able to assume power “in times of emergency.” Critics say the seven-stage “road map” is a blueprint to legitimise military rule and ensure it retains a grip on power.
