Bahrain's bank lending will experience a fall up to next year, before picking up again in 2013, Bharatbook.com said in its new report on “Commercial Banking Report Bahrain.” “We expect loan growth to slow from 45 percent in 2008 to -10 8 percent in 2009 and 8 percent in 2010, before growing again to 11-15 percent in 2013. The five-year CAGR in loans should fall steadily from 29 percent in 2008 to around 7 percent in 2013. As with the continuing growth in loans, we expect that loans as a percentage of GDP will grow from nearly 71 percent in 2008 to 81 percent in 2013,” the report said. The report forecast that deposit growth will slow from 20 percent in 2008 to -5 percent in 2009, before accelerating again to 10 percent in 2013. The five-year CAGR in deposits should drop from 20 percent in 2008 to 6.6 percent in 2013. Deposits will likely grow as a percentage of GDP from 73 percent in 2008 to around 82 percent in 2013. The absolute growth in deposits will be sufficient to ensure that deposits per capita rise from BHD6,028 in 2008 to BHD8,801 in 2013. “Looking forward, we expect that the loan-to-deposit ratio will gradually continue its growth from 97 percent in 2008 to 98.4 in 2013, but most likely fall to around 92 percent during 2009 and 2010, due to the current economic environment,” it said.
