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Pakistan's battle with the Taleban
By Robert Birsel
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 11 - 10 - 2009

bomber killed 42 people on Friday in the Pakistani city of Peshawar, underscoring the need for the security forces to mount an offensive against militants, government officials said.
Violence has been picking up after a relative lull that followed the killing of the Pakistani Taleban leader in a US drone attack on Aug. 5, and after troops largely drove the militants out of the Swat region.
There was no claim of responsibility for the blast but Interior Minister Rehman Malik said “all roads are leading to South Waziristan”, referring to the headquarters of the Pakistani Taleban.
Here are some questions and answers about the militants.
Are the Pakistani Taleban in resurgence?
Interior Minister Malik has repeatedly said in recent weeks that the back of the Pakistani Taleban has been broken. The army largely cleared the former Taleban bastion in the Swat valley, 120 km northwest of Islamabad, with an offensive launched in April.
Another militant enclave, the Bajaur ethnic Pashtun tribal region on the Afghan border, was largely cleared earlier although intermittent clashes and bomb attacks occur in both places.
The biggest blow to the Taleban was the killing of their overall leader, Baitullah Mehsud, in an attack by a missile-firing US drone aircraft in his South Waziristan stronghold on the Afghan border. Several top Taleban members have been captured.
So, are they on the ropes?
While largely forced out of Swat and Bajaur there are still about 10,000 well-armed fighters in South Waziristan and more in other regions. The new overall Taleban leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, put to rest US and Pakistani speculation he may have been killed in a power struggle last month by meeting reporters in South Waziristan on Sunday. He vowed revenge for Baitullah's killing. Friday's bomb and similar attacks over the past couple of weeks have set back hopes the militants were on the back foot.
Some analysts say the militants have been given time to regroup because the army has yet to launch an offensive in South Waziristan.
What will Pakistan do next?
Malik said the Peshawar attack underscored the need for action and the government had no option but to go on the offensive in South Waziristan. The army is preparing for an offensive but it has declined to say when it would begin.
Over recent months, security forces have been launching air and artillery strikes, while moving in troops, blockading the region and trying to split off factions.
The army says it has two divisions, or up to 28,000 soldiers, in place to take on an estimated 10,000 hardcore Taleban in South Waziristan. Analysts say fighting would be intense against the tough militants, including up to 1,000 Uzbeks.
What implications for Afghanistan?
Many analysts say Pakistan is acting only against the militants which threaten it, like the Pakistani Taleban, while leaving alone those focused on fighting in Afghanistan. The United States has stepped up pressure on Pakistan for action against the Afghan Taleban factions but Pakistan can argue that it can only focus on one area at a time – South Waziristan.
Pakistan rejects US complaints that the Afghan Taleban led by Mullah Mohammad Omar are operating from the town of Quetta in Pakistan's Baluchistan province, in the so-called Quetta shura, or leadership council.
Despite such denials, analysts say some Pakistanis see Afghan Taleban groups as a useful tool to counter the influence of old rival India in Afghanistan.
With US and Afghan officials increasingly raising the possibility of talks with the Afghan Taleban to end that war, analysts say Pakistan is unlikely to move with full force against groups that might be part of a settlement and would provide it with leverage in Afghanistan.


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