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Allies may decide Berlusconi's fate
By Victor L. Simpson
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 10 - 10 - 2009

ship crooner to billionaire media mogul to Italy's dominant political figure, Premier Silvio Berlusconi has achieved an improbable rise to power.
Now – dogged by a sex scandal and ordered back to trial this week to face corruption and fraud charges — he's staring into the abyss of a spectacular downfall.
But this master of self-transformation has bounced back from scandal countless times in the past, and the Constitutional Court's decision Wednesday to lift his political immunity as premier may be just another chink in the leader's teflon armor.
With the opposition in disarray, the people still behind him, and almost inexhaustible avenues for appeal, Berlusconi's fate ironically rests with his political allies.
The most dangerous sharks swimming in Berlusconi's pool are key figures of his own coalition: one the boisterous head of a xenophobic party, the other a cool-headed former neo-Fascist who considers himself the media magnate's successor.
Despite setbacks that would have cost other leaders their jobs long ago, the 73-year-old Italian leader says he has no intention of stepping down and intends to serve the final 3 1/2 years of his term. He has hunkered down into combat mode, denouncing the high court judges as “leftist” and apparently implying the largely ceremonial president – a dignified figure who has sought to be a voice of reason – is a Communist stooge. There's little question that the decision by the high court to remove Berlusconi's immunity as premier – opening the way for his corruption trial to resume – comes as a massive political blow that could hobble his premiership even if he clings to power.
Preparing for court appearances and constantly defending himself against political attacks will prove a major distraction from such critical issues as Italy's economic crisis and Afghanistan, where six Italian troops were recently killed in a bomb blast.
Stefano Folli, a commentator for Il Sole 24 Ore, calls this the “most critical moment of his political life.” But Berlusconi never quite seems so alive as when he's battling his critics – and the broader Italian public often appears to applaud the spectacle of the premier sneering and snarling as he fends off his accusers.
Berlusconi's enduring popularity may lie partly in the way he's seen by millions as the living embodiment of their dreams – a man who rose from nothing to become Italy's richest and most powerful man, wielding the reins of state even as he parties on yachts with starlets.
As a businessman, he's shown a genius for tapping into powerful national obsessions. In a soccer-crazy nation, he owns AC Milan, one of Italy's most successful clubs. And his media empire has fed Italy an endless stream of glitz that has helped the masses vicariously live “la dolce vita” – the sweet life.
Polls have shown that Berlusconi, who has ruled for seven of the past eight years, still enjoys broad support in Italy despite accusations from his wife that he has had inappropriate relationships with far younger women and allegations from a self-described call girl that he spent a night with her.
Berlusconi says he is “no saint” but has denied ever paying anyone for sex or having any improper relationships. The premier said Thursday he will go on TV and appear in courtrooms to prove that corruption and tax fraud charges in two trials against him are false. “These two trials are laughable, they are a farce which I will illustrate to Italians also by going on TV,” Berlusconi said. “I will defend myself in the courtrooms and ridicule my accusers, showing all Italians ... the stuff I am made of.” If anyone proves Berlusconi's downfall it could very well be his coalition partners.
One key ally, Umberto Bossi, head of the anti-immigrant Northern League, said he needs the government to carry out its promised federalist reforms, shifting some tax and other powers away from Rome to the individual regions. Berlusconi is generally lukewarm to federalism – but would cross the unpredictable Bossi at his peril: he brought down Berlusconi's first government after only a few months in 1994. The premier's legal woes could turn him into a hostage to Bossi's whims, and make him lose credibility with the public.
Gianfranco Fini, the speaker of the lower house, is sounding ever-more statesman-like as he moves from the far-right to mainline European conservatism. Italian newspapers said he was irritated by Berlusconi's attacks on the president, and he has increasingly appeared to distance himself from his partner in power.
If Berlusconi is dragged into a legal quagmire Fini may find it ever harder to resist a grab for power. And in stark contrast to Berlusconi's sleazy image, Fini comes across to the public as squeaky clean.


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