THE son of former Philippine President Cory Aquino, the heroine of the 1986 “People Power” revolution who died a month ago, said Wednesday he would contest the presidency in 2010 elections. Supporters are hoping the outpouring of emotion at his mother's funeral last month will translate into support for his presidency, but analysts say the May election race is wide open. Here are some questions and answers on Aquino and his prospects: How likely is Aquino to win? Difficult to say. Because he has so far not publicly shown any desire to run, he was not included in voter surveys of the half a dozen or so likely candidates for the presidency in the 2010 elections. Analysts have said the elections are wide open. Some believe Aquino's popularity might just be a product of media hype brought about by the outpouring of emotion when his mother died last month. Aquino has no experience in the executive department other than standing by his mother's side when she was president for six years and in his nine years as a lawmaker he does not have a great track record. Funding and organization could also be a problem since most other candidates started campaign preparations as early as 2007. Aquino's Liberal Party is a small organization, although his decision to run for president may persuade other groups to align with his party. The independent Pulse Asia agency said last month Sen. Manuel Villar had emerged as the favorite in the latest opinion poll with 25 percent support. Sharing second spot were former president Joseph Estrada and Vice President Manuel de Castro. But the hundreds of thousands of people who came out for the funeral of Aquino's mother last month represent a huge vote bank, some analysts have said. Given the status of both his mother and father, a senator assassinated when he returned from political exile in 1983 during the rule of strongman Ferdinand Marcos, Aquino could be riding the crest of a huge popularity wave, they have said. His challenge will be to keep that support intact until the elections in May and garner more grassroots support. One of Corazon Aquino's most important legacies to the Philippines is the 1987 constitution, adopted during her term in office. Its political provisions specify term limits for elected officials, a reaction to Marcos' two decades in power, but it also has strongly nationalist economic provisions, including restrictions on foreign investment in some sectors and on foreigners owning land. An Aquino presidency would perhaps be slow to amend the constitution out of deference to Corazon Aquino, even though many businessmen agree that change in the economic provisions would be welcomed by markets. Also, Manuel “Mar” Roxas, a Liberal Party colleague who has withdrawn his own nomination to make way for Aquino, was the preferred choice of markets for the presidency. Roxas has served as trade secretary for two administrations and has worked in an investment bank, while Aquino has only held legislative posts. Some analysts say Aquino has not actively supported key economic policies during his days in Congress and the business community is unlikely to welcome a candidate who has yet to prove anything. Aquino's Liberal Party is strongly centrist, and has been likened to the Democratic Party of the United States. He has been opposed to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, once an ally of his mother, after she became enmeshed in charges of corruption and election fraud. On his Web site (www.noynoy.ph), Aquino has written: “My father died for democracy. My mother fought for democracy. They believed that if we make democracy work in our country, the government would be accountable to the people. “I am determined to continue the fight started by my father and my mother to see that democracy takes root and is strengthened in our country. This cannot happen in a government that serves the interest of the powerful few.”
