VOTER dissatisfaction with the Irish government could jeopardize a “yes” vote in Ireland's plebiscite on the Lisbon Treaty, threatening, yet again, EU ambitions for greater global influence. Until now, the view has been that Ireland's deterioration from “Celtic Tiger” economy to the euro zone's weakest link would secure a win on Oct. 2, with voters fearing a second rejection of the charter would jeopardize their position within the bloc, leaving them exposed to an Icelandic-style meltdown. But with just four weeks until polling day, the latest survey shows support for the treaty is falling. Foreign Minister Michael Martin has admitted it will be difficult to secure ratification and voter discontent with the government raises the stakes even further. “There are risks there that you will still get a significant protest vote,” said Austin Hughes, KBC Ireland's chief economist. “There is a vicious mood of ‘damn them all'.” Last year's poll was lost due to confusion over the content of the treaty, a lackluster official campaign and a fired-up opposition that capitalized on both; putting the government on the back-foot with emotive arguments about abortion, neutrality and taxation. Another “No” would derail, possibly for good, EU plans for a president, a foreign policy chief and speedier decision-making, since the treaty must be ratified by all 27 nations. Eurosceptic presidents in Poland and the Czech Republic are waiting for Ireland's vote before signing it into law. On the face of it, Prime Minister Brian Cowen should have an easier task this year. His has wrung concessions from Brussels, including the retention of an Irish EU commissioner, that should neutralize much of the arguments employed by the “No” camp in 2008. The anti-Lisbon side has lost the personal appeal and the financing provided by businessman Declan Ganley, who has bowed out after failing to win a seat in the European Parliament. Moreover, Irish people, traditionally pro-Europe and not given to the sort of anti-Brussels rhetoric popular in Britain, have been grateful for their EU membership during the crisis. But the mood is sour. A recent opinion poll showed three quarters of voters want a change of government amid anger over increased unemployment, rising taxes and spending cuts. The timing of a government debate on a National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) to bail out the banks in the weeks leading up to Oct. 2 could stir further resentment. “Some of the commentary around NAMA is that if this government is doing it, well it must be wrong and that is the sort of mindset that argues, ‘Can you trust them on Lisbon?',” said Hughes. The quickest way to remove the government would be another “No”. But analysts say the electorate, when confronted with the ballot box, may not be that bloody-minded. “They already gave the government a good kicking in the European elections and there are some indications that people know perfectly well that a ‘no' vote in the next referendum would not help their current situation,” said Hugo Brady, a senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform. Both sides are using the economy to push their case but the “No” camp, supported by some unions, has been first out of the traps with warnings that the treaty is bad for workers' rights. The government, conscious of the failings of last year's campaign, launched its offensive this week with slogans that emphasized Ireland's reliance on Europe. With the latest opinion poll showing a jump in undecided voters, the government and other mainstream political parties need a well-coordinated, convincing campaign. So far, the signs are not good. The parties are at each other's throats on every other front and, despite promising to be more communicative with the public, Cowen is maintaining his traditional low profile. Despite Dublin's claims to the contrary, there is still a low level of understanding about the EU among Irish voters, according to the latest Eurobarometer survey. The government has already had to deny accusations from the “No” side that the treaty will cut Ireland's minimum wage. A resounding “Yes” would send a clear, positive message to international investors and big business but such an emphatic victory does not appear in Cowen's power. “It will be a reluctant, grumpy Yes vote,” said Brady.
