Over 1 million pilgrims benefit from golf cart service at Grand Mosque during Ramadan    Visitors welcomed with Eid initiative at Thee Ain Heritage Village in Al-Baha    Tebuk emir reviews rain response in Tayma    Saudi Arabia considers rent cap as part of major real estate reforms    Messi's bodyguard banned from touchline at Inter Miami games    Screen time in bed linked to insomnia, study finds    Le Pen vows to appeal political ban, calls verdict a 'denial of democracy'    Death toll from Myanmar earthquake rises to 2,719 as rescue efforts continue    Russia, Ukraine trade blame over new energy strikes    Putin orders Russia's largest military call-up in over a decade    Albania hosts MWL chief for Eid sermon at largest mosque in the Balkans    Haramain High-Speed Railway transports over 1.2 million passengers during Ramadan    Saudi Transport Authority says passengers can ride for free if taxi meters are off    Ministry of Education forms 425 community partnerships with SR653 million impact    Mexico bans junk food in schools to fight childhood obesity epidemic    Sweet sales surge ahead of Eid as Saudi chocolate imports top 123 million kg in 2024    Saudi creatives shine at Jeddah's Fawanees Nights with art, fashion, and storytelling    T1 CEO confirms Gumayusi's return for LCK Spring after lineup shakeup    100 Thieves claim Marvel Rivals Invitational NA crown as 2025 scene heats up    Bollywood actress vindicated over boyfriend's death after media hounding    Saudi Arabia hold Japan to goalless draw in Saitama to stay in World Cup hunt    Grand Mufti rules against posting prayers and preaching in mosques on social media    King Salman prays for peace and stability for Palestinians in Ramadan message King reaffirms Saudi Arabia's commitment to serving the Two Holy Mosques and pilgrims    Bollywood star Saif Ali Khan 'out of danger' after attack at home in Mumbai    Exotic Taif Roses Simulation Performed at Taif Rose Festival    Asian shares mixed Tuesday    Weather Forecast for Tuesday    Saudi Tourism Authority Participates in Arabian Travel Market Exhibition in Dubai    Minister of Industry Announces 50 Investment Opportunities Worth over SAR 96 Billion in Machinery, Equipment Sector    HRH Crown Prince Offers Condolences to Crown Prince of Kuwait on Death of Sheikh Fawaz Salman Abdullah Al-Ali Al-Malek Al-Sabah    HRH Crown Prince Congratulates Santiago Peña on Winning Presidential Election in Paraguay    SDAIA Launches 1st Phase of 'Elevate Program' to Train 1,000 Women on Data, AI    41 Saudi Citizens and 171 Others from Brotherly and Friendly Countries Arrive in Saudi Arabia from Sudan    Saudi Arabia Hosts 1st Meeting of Arab Authorities Controlling Medicines    General Directorate of Narcotics Control Foils Attempt to Smuggle over 5 Million Amphetamine Pills    NAVI Javelins Crowned as Champions of Women's Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) Competitions    Saudi Karate Team Wins Four Medals in World Youth League Championship    Third Edition of FIFA Forward Program Kicks off in Riyadh    Evacuated from Sudan, 187 Nationals from Several Countries Arrive in Jeddah    SPA Documents Thajjud Prayer at Prophet's Mosque in Madinah    SFDA Recommends to Test Blood Sugar at Home Two or Three Hours after Meals    SFDA Offers Various Recommendations for Safe Food Frying    SFDA Provides Five Tips for Using Home Blood Pressure Monitor    SFDA: Instant Soup Contains Large Amounts of Salt    Mawani: New shipping service to connect Jubail Commercial Port to 11 global ports    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Delivers Speech to Pilgrims, Citizens, Residents and Muslims around the World    Sheikh Al-Issa in Arafah's Sermon: Allaah Blessed You by Making It Easy for You to Carry out This Obligation. Thus, Ensure Following the Guidance of Your Prophet    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques addresses citizens and all Muslims on the occasion of the Holy month of Ramadan    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



Myanmar ethnic offensive tests China ties
By Martin Petty and Ben Blanchard
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 03 - 09 - 2009

MYANMAR'S assault on rebel militias on its remote border appears aimed at herding them into next year's election process, even if it comes at the cost of vital ties with its powerful northern neighbor, China.
Myanmar's military incursion into northeastern Shan State shattered a 20-year ceasefire with rebel armies on its border with China and could trigger the protracted instability that Beijing, the junta's strongest friend, has long feared.
A prolonged conflict that forces more refugees to flee to China would show that the junta is intent on controlling the rebellious region, despite any fallout with China, analysts said.
“Seizing control is more important, because they will not accept private armies with their own local administration,” said Bertil Lintner, an author and specialist on Myanmar.
“They're not as subservient to the Chinese as many people think. They're certainly not their puppets. The generals are megalomaniacs and they know China won't cut the trade ties.”
China has called on Myanmar to ensure stability in the region, and Myanmar has apologized to Beijing.
But Myanmar's aim clearly is to establish power in the region ahead of next year's election, said Mary Callahan, a Myanmar expert at the University of Washington. “(Its) behavior in situations like this, which aggravate China, are first and foremost about its domestic agenda,” she said. “Eliminating perceived threats to its (democracy) road map is right at the top of that.” The military's successful offensive in Kokang against the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the weakest of the local ethnic groups, was simply to test the waters before battling a more formidable force, analysts said.
The real target could be the heavily armed United Wa State Army, a 15,000-20,000-strong force led by drugs barons and warlords. The junta may use drugs suppression to justify an assault — and perhaps get more than it bargained for.
Ceasefire agreements in place since 1989 between the government and the militias had given the insurgents a great deal of autonomy in Shan state. “If they go all out against the Wa it will be very bloody, with big casualties on both sides,” said Lintner.
Further fighting could risk either spilling into China, or sending a renewed flood of refugees across the border. Many ethnic Chinese live in the rebel enclaves and Chinese businesses are involved in trading gems and timber across the border.
Anthony Davis, a security analyst at IHS-Jane's, said the situation in Kokang was “extremely precarious” and may escalate, especially if Myanmar picked a fight with the Wa.
The stakes may be too high for Beijing to allow that. Dealing with problems on a sensitive and strategic border is the last thing China wants after violent unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang in the past two years.
The prospect of a lengthy conflict could delay next year's long-awaited elections. No date for them has been announced, suggesting the junta is waiting for rebels to disarm and join an army-run border force before entering the political process.
The Kokang clashes might be an attempt to scare them into submission, but that could backfire and push back the polls.
But after holding a constitutional referendum in the immediate aftermath of last year's devastating Cyclone Nargis to pave the way for polls, the junta is unlikely to put up with any roadblocks to its “road map to democracy”. The assault sparked speculation in Beijing as to what Myanmar's ruling generals were thinking when they ordered an offensive they knew would push refugees into China.
Some people with close ties to China's leadership wondered whether Myanmar was punishing Beijing's efforts to stop it from strengthening military ties with nuclear-armed North Korea.
Regardless, some Chinese analysts played down the influence Beijing has over the generals. “They're not great friends. They don't listen to what China says,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.


Clic here to read the story from its source.