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What is behind the fighting in Somalia?
By Daniel Wallis
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 22 - 08 - 2009

Fighting erupted between rebels, government forces and African Union (AU) peacekeepers in Somalia's capital Mogadishu Friday, killing at least 22 people, witnesses said.
The latest violence follows days of to-and-fro battles for southern towns between the insurgents and pro-government militia. Here are some questions and answers about the clashes.
Who is fighting for what?
The UN-backed government of President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, a former rebel, is seen by many analysts as Somalia's best hope for a return to stability in 18 years of turmoil. But it has been pegged back by a stubborn insurgency and by in-fighting and rivalries within its own ranks.
It controls just small pockets of the capital Mogadishu and parts of the country's central region. This week, pro-government militia including the Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama group launched a drive to retake southern towns from the rebels.
What is happening in the South?
Insurgents including the Al-Shabaab group, which Washington says is Al-Qaeda's proxy in Somalia, have controlled most of the south for months. That includes the important port of Kismayu, and strategic towns such as Bulahawa and Luuq near the borders with Kenya and Ethiopia.
On Monday, Ahlu Sunna fighters chased Al-Shabaab out of Bulahawa without firing a shot. A day later, pro-government groups also seized Luuq from another rebel group, Hizbul Islam. But on Thursday that all changed. Al-Shabaab returned to Bulahawa in force and ousted Ahlu Sunna after fighting that killed at least 12 people. Hizbul Islam also retook control of Luuq without a fight. Further north, Ahlu Sunna gunmen also launched an assault on the central town of Bula Burde. At least 33 people died.
Are Ethiopia and Eriteria involved?
Spokesmen for the Shabaab and Hizbul Islam insurgents say Ethiopian troops have been accompanying the pro-government militia during this week's attacks, although it is not clear if Ethiopian soldiers actually took part in any fighting.
Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 with tacit US backing to rout an Islamic courts movement from Mogadishu. It withdrew its forces earlier this year, and denies all charges by the rebels that they have returned. Addis Ababa says it is providing training and advice to Ahmed's forces, but nothing more. Fighting with Ahlu Sunna this week were several members of Somalia's former Transitional Federal Government who had sought refuge in Ethiopia. When Al-Shabaab took back Bulahawa, some of them crossed the border back into Ethiopia, residents said. Washington has accused Ethiopia's neighbor and arch-foe Eritrea of supporting Somali rebels including Al-Shabaab, and has vowed to take action if Asmara does not stop its meddling. Eritrea says it is the US, not Asmara, that is threatening to ignite more violence in the country by providing sending military aid to the Mogadishu government.
Why should the world care?
Western security agencies say Somalia has become a haven for militants plotting attacks across the Horn of Africa region and beyond. In March, Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden urged Somalis in an audio tape to topple Ahmed, saying they had an obligation to fight his “apostate government”. After a meeting with Ahmed in Nairobi on Aug. 6, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged to increase support to his government, and said that if Al-Shabaab could attract Al-Qaeda or other “terrorist actors” to the Horn of Africa nation, it would be a threat to the United States. Days earlier, police on the other side of the world in Australia said they had uncovered a plot to attack a Sydney army base by men they said had links to Al- Shabaab.
Insecurity on land has also translated into piracy in the waters off Somalia, where sea gangs have made tens of millions of dollars in ransoms targeting ships using the Gulf of Aden.
What will happen next?
Friday's pitched battles in downtown Mogadishu are nothing new, but combined with the fighting in southern and central regions, it amounts to a sharp increase in overall violence.
The 5,000-strong AU force of peacekeepers from Uganda and Burundi has good equipment and training, but is still only able to secure little more than the airport, harbour and presidential palace. The peacekeepers are often attacked by the rebels.
The success of Ahlu Sunna and other moderate pro-government groups in the south could point to an infusion of support and weapons, possibly from the United States. But their inability to hold territory in the face of a rebel fight-back suggests that the fighting over the Gedo region towns will go on.
Ahmed's prime minister tried to reduce government infighting and clan rivalries with a cabinet reshuffle this week, but it is yet to be seen if this will bring unity to the administration, or create more bad blood.
An independent group of Somali elders led by former president Abdiqassim Salad Hassan is attempting to broker a ceasefire between the warring parties, but says the rebel groups have so far rejected its entreaties.


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