A string of questionable elections in West Africa this year have been backward steps for democracy that may incite further power grabs on an unstable continent, even though most of the polls went off peacefully. A poll in Mauritania that legitimized a military coup and one in Congo Republic which gave a long-serving president a new term in office were both denounced by the opposition as rigged. Last week, Niger's President Mamadou Tandja declared victory in a referendum he called to extend his term of office in the uranium-producing Sarahan state, defying international criticism and domestic protests that the move was anti-constitutional. Investors appear little fazed so far, with many attracted by the high potential returns Africa has to offer. But there are growing fears of a contagion that could undermine efforts around the continent to consolidate political and economic reform. “This is not what can be described as an internal affair,” Umaru Yar'Adua, president of regional economic powerhouse and oil giant Nigeria, said of Tandja's power bid. “Whatever affects one affects the other,” he added of the links between his country and neighboring Niger. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, traveling in Africa this week, has warned governments that investors would shun states where the rule of law is not respected. But so far, firms appear to be less concerned with a government's democratic credentials than with stability. In Niger, for example, French state-owned energy firm Areva has said it will continue uranium mining there as planned. “In the instances where a leader feels he has enough room for manoeuvre, such as in Niger where the country's mineral wealth has afforded Tandja some degree of financial independence, then the influence from the West is reduced,” said Kissy Agyeman-Togobo, an analyst at IHS Global Insight. Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, who overthrew Mauritania's first freely elected leader in a military coup last year, has also defied criticism, insisting his actions are a domestic matter. While his victory in July's election was denounced as a fraud by opponents, Aziz was sworn in last week and won strong backing from France, which declared him a key regional partner. For a continent with a history of military interventions in politics, events in both countries set a dangerous precedent. “If you turn a blind eye to Mauritania it's going to incite other people to think that bad behavior is rewarded,” said Christopher Fomunyoh at the Washington-based National Democratic Institute (NDI), which monitors elections worldwide. “What if one day we wake up and it's happened in Nigeria? Then it's a world problem,” he added of a country which already faces a rebel violence in its oil-producing delta region. Emboldening the juntas Guinea-Bissau's president was killed in March just as Marc Ravalomanana was ousted from power in Madagascar by army-backed rival Andry Rajoelina, who has since pledged to hold elections. A presidential vote is scheduled for December in Guinea, the world's biggest exporter of industrial mineral bauxite, after a military takeover last year. But junta leaders may be emboldened by events in Mauritania and elsewhere to hang on to power. “Guinea is vulnerable ... the fate of the democratization process is hanging in the balance,” Fomunyoh said. This year's tainted polls, coming after post-election violence in Kenya last year and the implementation of a tense, uneasy power-sharing agreement in Zimbabwe threaten to undermine some of the progress that Africa had made this decade. An election in Gabon to find a successor to late ruler Omar Bongo in coming weeks will be the next test. His son, Defense Minister Ali Ben Bongo, is tipped to win the poll. But rivals are already accusing him of breaching pre-election norms by not standing down from government to campaign. After that, attention will focus on Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa exporter. A much-delayed election is set for Nov. 29, but there is widespread scepticism that President Laurent Gbagbo will go ahead with the poll then. Even if there is backsliding in Ivory Coast or elsewhere, international bodies lack the potency to force change. One strategy is to reward pro-democracy behavior. President Barack Obama signaled US approval of Ghana, whose December elections were regarded as free and fair, when he chose it for his first visit to sub
