Prime Minister Vladimir Putin marks 10 years in power on Sunday, his domestic popularity and commanding authority over Russia virtually intact despite a serious economic crisis. With no credible opposition on the horizon and a long-term plan published for Russia's development to 2020 and beyond, many say Putin could stay at the helm for another decade unless unforeseen external factors intervene. A youthful-looking 56, Putin burnished his macho public image this week with photographs showing him riding a horse bare-chested, swimming butterfly stroke in a river and catching fish in Siberia – hardly the look of a man eyeing retirement. “There is one thing you can be sure of,” Putin's chief spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a telephone interview. “There will be no change at all to his hard-working schedule. Now is a tough time in terms of crisis management, of ensuring that social obligations are fulfilled. He will be a very hard worker.” Putin has enjoyed an economic tail wind for most of his time in power, as prime minister from August 1999, president from 2000 to 2008, then prime minister again. This came in the form of high prices for Russia's main exports of gas, oil and metals. But political analysts and diplomats also credit him with restoring order to what was a shattered land in danger of collapse when he was nominated on August 9, 1999 as ailing President Boris Yeltsin's fourth prime minister in 17 months. Putin reined in Russian regions seeking independence, curbed powerful governors and tamed the country's powerful oligarchs, establishing a strong “power vertical”. That came at what Western ambassadors say was a high price in terms of eroded democracy, weakened human rights and limited media freedom – but polls consistently show those things at the bottom of most Russians' priority lists. Solid ratings Even though the global economic crisis has now slashed prices for raw materials and halted foreign lending to Russian companies, triggering the country's worst recession since Putin came to power, pollsters say Putin's ratings have barely moved. “In Russia, politicians are evaluated on different criteria to those in the West,” said Olga Kryshtanovskaya, an expert on the Kremlin elite. “In the West, effectiveness is what counts but here the most important thing is the impression of strength – and for Russians, Putin is very strong.” The independent Levada Centre says the premier still enjoys a 78 percent approval rating, only 10 points down on the maximum he reached just after Russia's war with Georgia last year. This is despite unemployment rising more than 50 percent to 6.5 million in May and the economy contracting by nearly 10 percent in the first quarter of this year. “The crisis has of course affected trust in Putin but has not changed it fundamentally,” said Levada director Lev Gudkov. “Even if the economic situation gets worse, Putin has a reserve of patience and trust among the people which will last probably another year and a half. The crisis is developing quite slowly in Russia and people have had time to adapt to it.” President again? Another 18 months of substantial public support would take Putin, the country's most successful politician since the collapse of the Soviet Union, close to the next election for Russian president, due to be held in early 2012. Constitutional changes pushed through last year – some say at Putin's behest – will extend the next president's term by two years more than the period being served by his protege, long-time ally and hand-picked successor, Dmitry Medvedev. Putin chose Medvedev to succeed him because term limits prevented him continuing for a third consecutive term. However he is free to return to the Kremlin at any time in future. At some point before the election Putin must decide whether to return to his old job as president, dispensing with Medvedev as a one-term temporary stand-in, or whether to bow out. Nobody expects their unusual power-sharing arrangement – heavily dominated by Putin – to last beyond the next election. And nobody sees any potential rival to Putin on the political scene, thanks in part to controls on the opposition and limits on state media reporting of alternative viewpoints. Maria Lipman, editor of the Pro et Contra Journal at the Moscow Carnegie Centre think-tank, cautions that predictions are hazardous in Russia but believes Putin's instinct will be to return to the presidency. “Here's a man who wants to be in control,” she said. “...His whole tenure has been about gaining control, consolidating control and then expanding control.” Kryshtanovskaya agreed. “Our field studies show people believe Putin is the real head of the government and Medvedev is a kind of political son, a number two who is learning under him,” she said. “But this is a temporary arrangement and cannot last. Russia will return to a single centre of power and Vladimir Vladimorovich Putin will be president in 2012.” Asked whether Russians could expect another 10 years of Putin, spokesman Peskov said he “simply cannot answer this question”. “I have never heard from him any signs he wants to quit,” he said. “But also I have never heard any concrete signs about the future.”
