Iraqi and Kurdish leaders have made a big leap towards resolving a dangerous feud over land and oil, but they are still miles away from reaching a lasting deal. The mere fact that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki flew to Kurdistan to meet regional President Masoud Barzani on Sunday was a breakthrough, after more than a year of deadlock in which the two have barely been on speaking terms. Maliki returned to Baghdad from the trip late on Monday. “The visit marked a new era. There was agreement (but) there are big challenges,” said Yasin Majeed, Maliki's media advisor. As US troops prepare to withdraw from Iraq by 2012, the row between northern Iraq's largely autonomous Kurdistan region and its Shi'ite Arab-led government in Baghdad is seen as the greatest threat to the country's fragile stability. While the sectarian violence that nearly ripped Iraq apart has died down, there have been tense standoffs between Kurdish troops and Iraqi forces along disputed territories that are home to a mix of Arabs, Kurds and smaller ethnic groups. Washington, whose troops intervened many times to defuse the row, has pushed for a settlement before its forces go home but has been frustrated by the slow rate of progress. Both US Vice President Joe Biden and Defence Secretary Robert Gates in recent visits to Iraq tried to highlight to urgency of the problem. “Everybody has been warning that the Kurd-Arab faultline is the most dangerous, but Iraqi politicians haven't been behaving as if it is,” said Marc Lynch, a researcher at Foreign Policy. “The fact that Maliki is finally taking the initiative shows there's been a lot of American pressure ... Gates, Biden, others have tried to impress upon him that his window for movement is closing. The Americans are withdrawing, so he better move fast.” Long way to go In substantive terms, a deal seems as far off as it ever was – Maliki and Barzani agreed only to hold further talks and establish a joint committee to examine disputes. A high level Kurdish delegation is due to visit Baghdad soon, Majeed said. “It is the first step in a good direction,” Barzani's Chief of Staff Fuad Hussein told Reuters. “But one must be realistic: there's a long way to go. It's too early (for concessions).” At the heart of the problem is the fate of Kirkuk, which produces a fifth of Iraq's oil, and other disputed territories. Kurds consider Kirkuk their ancestral home and want to include it within their borders, a notion rejected by Maliki, who fears losing the oil, and the province's Arabs and Turkmen. It is an especially emotive issue for Kurds because Saddam Hussein evicted thousands of them from Kirkuk and other border territories to solidify his control over them during his reign. In the run up to Kurdistan polls on July 25 that Barzani won with around 70 percent, he said there would be “no compromise” over Kirkuk and Iraq must stick to its 2005 constitution's plan to hold a census, then a referendum, on the region's fate. Baghdad rejects that, arguing that Kurds have moved in aggressively to tip any result. The UN has tried to persuade Barzani to drop the demand, which they fear could start a war. But while neither Maliki nor Barzani have shown willingness to budge, analysts say that could be posturing ahead of talks. “When you have a negotiating position, based on maximum demands, until you get some kind of progress, he's going to sound inflexible – that doesn't mean he is,” said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Baghdad has also rejected oil contracts the Kurds signed independently with foreign firms in their region as illegal. But then there's the election Maliki faces in January. Analysts say it could tilt him towards compromise with Kurds – especially since his Dawa party's ties with powerful ally the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council have weakened in the past year. “Maliki really needs to calm the situation with the Kurds before the next election because he might need the two Kurdish parties to strengthen his coalition again,” said Zuhair Al-Jezairy, Chief Editor of the Aswat Al-Iraq news agency. Progress in other areas has already been made. In June, Iraq started exporting oil from the very Kurd fields it condemns as illegal, raising hopes these disputes are ultimately soluble.
