IN the four years since its birth, Lebanon's anti-Syrian “March 14” alliance has survived an assassination campaign targeting its leadership and a military mauling at the hands of the powerful Hezbollah and its allies. But this week a founding member of the US-backed coalition that coalesced after the 2005 assassination of statesman Rafik Al-Hariri has struck it a potentially fatal blow from within. Druze politician Walid Jumblatt, once a March 14 hawk, said on Sunday his membership of the alliance could not continue – reshaping the political landscape and casting a long shadow over the March 14 victory in a parliamentary election two months ago. His political acrobatics are seen linked to his reading of a shifting regional picture, including rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Syria and an end to Syria's isolation by the West. Jumblatt's remarks cap a gradual swing in his political stance that could weaken March 14's influence in the cabinet that its leader, Saad Al-Hariri, is trying to form. While Jumblatt has yet to declare his final departure from March 14, politicians are already factoring in the implications. Such a move would strip March 14 of the absolute majority it won in the June parliamentary election and weaken its position in the coalition cabinet which Hariri aims to forge. Nabih Berri, parliament speaker and one of Syria's closest Lebanon allies, told As-Safir newspaper that the three ministers to be allocated to Jumblatt in the new 30-seat cabinet would no longer be considered among March 14's share. Responding to Jumblatt, Hariri's Future Party issued a statement underlying its commitment to the “Cedar Revolution” – a name given to a wave of anti-Syrian protests set off by Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination. The killing led to international pressure that forced Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon. Making up with Hezbollah Jumblatt has moderated his politics since Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies routed his followers in fighting in May, 2008. He had been a vociferous critic of the heavily armed Iranian-backed Shi'ite movement, which in turn accused him of deliberately escalating Lebanon's political crisis. Jumblatt met Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in June for the first time in more than three years in an encounter that underlined the thaw in their relations. His overtures towards Hezbollah have been accompanied by ever more open criticism of the main Christian factions within March 14: the Lebanese Forces party headed by Samir Geagea and former President Amin Gemayel's Phalange Party. Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party fought both parties' militias during Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war. “We allied ourselves, during a certain period, under the slogan of March 14 with a group of parties and figures, out of necessity ... but this cannot continue,” Jumblatt told a party meeting. He also called for a new page in ties with Syria, with which he was a close ally during and after the civil war. He described his meetings with neo-conservatives in former US President George W. Bush's administration as “a black spot” in his past. Though Jumblatt has directed veiled criticism at Hariri, political analysts expect him to maintain good ties with the prime minister-designate. Moreover, Jumblatt's move away from March 14 does not mean he will join the rival “March 8” alliance that includes Hezbollah, Berri's Shi'ite Amal movement and the Free Patriotic Movement of Christian politician Michel Aoun. Other politicians from both coalitions might join Jumblatt in the centre, further diluting the alliances that have defined and polarized Lebanese politics over the past four years.
