KIM Jong Il's reported decision to pass his communist dynasty to a third generation could have crucial implications for US efforts to persuade an increasingly hostile North Korea to abandon its nuclear programs. Whether tensions rise or fall, however, depends in large part on when exactly power is handed over to Kim's 26-year-old son, Kim Jong Un. A slow, smooth transition could help improve relations. The younger Kim would have time to be groomed as a leader and to win support from the powerful military, the government elite and the North's people. That could give him the power to reconsider whether to continue his father's provocative behavior, which includes recent nuclear and missile tests. If, however, he were forced to take power quickly because his ailing father died or stepped down, he probably would lack the backing he needs to change course. The United States and its allies could then face more threatening rhetoric and military posturing from an unstable country engaged in a power struggle. South Korea's spy agency told lawmakers that the North Korean government has begun “pledging its allegiance to Kim Jong Un,” legislator Park Jie-won said Tuesday. But as the United States tries to figure out the future of North Korean leadership, more questions linger than answers emerge. It remains unclear, for instance, what stage the succession process is in. “When you see smoke, you want to know: Is this the beginning of the fire or is it the end of the fire? We don't have a good sense of it,” said Victor Cha, who served as a senior Asia adviser on former President George W. Bush's National Security Council. For now, the United States is waiting and watching and admitting that officials know very little about North Korea's intentions. “We don't really have a good sense as to what's going on inside the country with regard to any possible transition,” State Department spokesman Robert Wood told reporters Tuesday. Kim Jong-il received years of support from his father, North Korean founder Kim-il Sung, who appointed him to crucial posts, purged opponents, fostered contacts with powerful members of the government and created a cult of personality for him. Kim Jong Un has received very little of this preparation. There are signs, however, that Kim Jong Un has had more exposure to the West than his father had when anointed. He reportedly studied at the International School in Bern, Switzerland, in the 1990s, and is said to be proficient in English. While that could open up avenues of engagement in the future, it appears unlikely that Kim Jong Un would start his time in power by taking a soft approach with the United States. Dictatorships facing succession crises usually become harder to negotiate with, not easier, as leaders try to shore up support, often through violent and coercive means. One positive outcome of the succession scramble could be increased US, South Korean and Japanese cooperation on plans for dealing with North Korea. Besides military contingency plans, the governments are likely considering how to handle human rights, economic, proliferation and other issues that could arise should infighting break out in the government. The less officials know about what the future holds for North Korea's leaders, the more necessary such planning becomes. “We have no example in modern history of a communist totalitarian dictatorship successfully managing a dynastic succession, except for North Korea,” said Michael Green, another former top Bush administration Asia adviser. “There's a lot of reason to question whether it will work.”
