THE jury is still out on the size and success of North Korea's nuclear test, but the May 25 blast could give any proliferation plans Pyongyang might have a marketing boost no matter how it measures up. Even nuclear experts who see the explosion as militarily insignificant paint scenarios ranging from future sets of nuclear and missile tests by North Korea to exports of dangerous technology to full-blown cooperation with Iran. Last week, a US official said initial American testing was “inconclusive” in confirming whether a nuclear device was detonated and more tests were needed. The Vienna-based Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization said the blast North Korea asserts was its second nuclear test since 2006 resembled both an explosion and an earthquake. But it said absolute proof required detection of radioactive particles and noble gases, expected this week at the earliest. US nuclear experts are cautious about the results, pending the release of more data, but unanimous about the proliferation concerns raised by the North Korean test. Based on the US Geological Survey's report of a 4.7 magnitude quake near the test site, the North Korean explosion yield was in the range of two to four kilotons, estimated Stanford University nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker. “This test appears to be about five times more powerful than the 2006 test. Thus, the test was more successful,” he said, cautioning that the degree of success depended on what yield North Korea was aiming for. “Now, they likely have sufficient information to have confidence in a simple nuclear arsenal,” added Hecker. More testing ahead? Peter Hayes and Scott Bruce of the Nautilus Institute in California say the seismic measurements suggest the North Koreans met their goal of creating a “significant explosion.” “This second, successful detonation underscores the perception that they are now a nuclear weapons state,” they wrote in an analysis published on Monday. This means the government of Kim Jong-il “can engage the United States and other powers from a position of increasing relative strength, rather than from a weaker position of ambiguous nuclear capability,” they added. Hayes and Bruce argue that North Korea's second nuclear test delivered far more diplomatic clout than military punch, because Pyongyang lacks three things: a medium- or long-range delivery system, the ability to make small nuclear warheads and a tested re-entry vehicle that can withstand heat. “Unless they buy some other country's design and materials, the DPRK will not be able to integrate a miniaturized nuclear warhead with an operationally effective long range missile system for another 10 to 15 years,” they wrote, referring to North Korea by its official acronym. The Nautilus analysts predict North Korea's next nuclear test will aim at miniaturizing the warhead. They also expect more long-range missile tests. South Korean media report preparations for the next such missile test are under way. Exports, Iran alliance More menacing than incremental improvements in North Korean capabilities is that the tests help Pyongyang proliferate by making its nuclear wares more credible and marketable, analysts say. “The first (threat) is immediate and it involves what North Korea might share with Iran and Syria – two states Pyongyang has a proven track record of sharing nuclear and nuclear delivery system technologies with,” said Henry Sokolski, head of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in Washington. “Might Pyongyang share the design and test data from its latest test with these states?” he added, calling that a huge blow to an international non-proliferation system already under strain by its failure to stop or penalize North Korea. According to Hecker, North Korea would be less likely to export scarce bombs than nuclear fuel cycle technologies: fuel fabrication, reactor construction and operation, and plutonium extraction. “North Korea already had sufficient credibility in the export market in these areas,” before the test, he said.
