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Dubai exports rising: Study
By Saudi Gazette Staff
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 24 - 05 - 2009

Shipments of Dubai Chamber members showed that after the surge in exports that began in the later part of 2007 and ran into the most part of 2008, the level of monthly exports in the first 3 months of 2009 indicated a return to the quadratic pattern over time defined for the earlier period.
For the first 3 months of 2009, total exports of Dubai Chamber members reached AED14.5 billion in January, AED14.2 billion in February and AED15.4 billion in March - for a total of AED44.1 billion. Predicted value of exports for the quarter based on the trend line fitted was within 6 percent of the total actual value.
In the first quarter of 2009, Dubai Chamber members' exports to 25 destinations exceeded AED100 million each. During the period, the largest market remained to be the GCC, where exports grew from AED17 billion in the first quarter of 2007, to AED22 billion in 2008, but declining to AED19 billion in 2009, with exports to Qatar dipping by 36 percent; exports to Oman and Bahrain by 29 percent and 10 percent respectively.
The total GCC exports declined despite the 1.3 percent and 12 percent increases in exports to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, respectively.
Compared to the 2007 values, however, substantial increases were noted in exports to Saudi Arabia, where an average annual increase of 21 percent was noted; and to Kuwait and Bahrain, both growing by 15 percent annually. On the other hand, the declines noted for Qatar and Oman were not as substantial.
Trade between Dubai's customs territory and the free zones and duty free shops declined by 23 percent between 2008 and 2009, but an annual average rate of increases of 3 percent could be recorded from 2007 to 2009.
Similarly, trade with India and Pakistan had declined substantially since 2008, but compared to the value in 2007 an annual rate of change of 16 percent could be noted.
Major markets in the Middle East posted an overall growth of 3 percent since 2008, with exports to Lebanon expanding by 50 percent and offsetting the decline of 39 percent in exports to Yemen. Other destinations that contracted were Jordan, Syria and Iraq.
Comparing with the 2007 first quarter exports, however, the 2009 values represented increases, ranging from an average annual rate of 3 percent for Yemen to 38 percent for Lebanon, leading to an overall average annual rate of change of 20 percent.
In the African markets, annual rate of change had been positive for both periods of comparison.
Between 2008 and 2009, largest growth was registered for Libya at 72 percent, as total exports to the destination recovered from a slump in 2008. On the other hand, with 2007 relatively high, average annual rate of change between 2007 and 2009 was low at 4 percent. Exports to Egypt and Algeria, which represented declines between 2008 and 2009, actually recorded double-digit average annual growth since 2007.
On the other hand, continuous growth had been noted in exports to Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tunisia. On the contrary, exports to Sudan had been declining since 2007.
Nonetheless, growth of exports to major markets in Africa had been positive for both periods - 8 percent between 2008 and 2009 and 13 percent annually between 2007 and 2009.
Exports to China and the US had been growing annually, both at 17 percent between 2008 and 2009. However, considering 2007 figures, average annual growth of 5 percent could be recorded for China, but exports to US had been growing at an average annual growth of 25 percent.
However, exports to Turkey and Switzerland had been declining since 2007. Despite the global financial crisis's effect of tightening banks' policies on loans and fueling uncertainly in the market as additional capital becomes more and more difficult to access, the above data shows no definite recorded decline in exporting activities. Instead, a more conservative growth pattern, consistent with the earlier years could be more sustainable.
Engineer Hamad Buamim, director general, Dubai Chamber, pointed out that the years 2007-2008 were exceptional due to high oil prices. He said that oil prices, especially in 2008 showed a 37 percent increase, a rate that was comparable to the growth of 38 percent for annual exports of Dubai Chamber members for the same period. __


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