long general election ended Wednesday with early exit polls giving the ruling Congress party and its allies a slight edge over the opposition bloc led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Neither grouping was seen as getting close to the 272 seats required to secure a parliamentary majority. Exit polls have proved notoriously inaccurate in previous Indian elections, and the official result will only be announced by the Election Commission on Saturday. The first two surveys carried by news channels both put the Congress-led coalition ahead, with one predicting a final tally of 191 seats, against 180 for the alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The other put the lead at 195 seats to 189 seats. A poll by C-Voter polling agency showed the center-left Congress-led alliance winning 189-201 seats with the BJP-led alliance taking 183-195 seats of the 543 seats at stake. The poll was conducted for India TV and UTV Business. The results of all the races to the 543-member lower house of parliament will be known on Saturday, which will trigger a frantic round of political horse-trading as both alliances scrabble among a multitude of regional parties for the extra partners needed to form a viable government. To rule a party or a coalition requires the support of 272 lawmakers. Indian shares fell 1.1 percent on Wednesday amid investor nervousness over the election outcome. Shares had rallied 4.1 percent in Tuesday's closing session on speculation the BJP would form the next government, traders said. While most opinion polls had tipped Congress as the likely victor, in the final stages of the actual vote, the pro-business BJP was seen as having gained late traction. Either party may have to depend on the parliamentary support of an unstable coalition of regional parties and the communists. That scenario could slow key reforms, such as relaxing labor laws, and rock investor confidence in an economy that faces a huge fiscal deficit. Crucial Tamil Nadu vote Voting in nine states including the swing state of Tamil Nadu in the south ended on Wednesday, the final round of a process that began on April 16 to allow security forces to move across the sprawling country to supervise the vote. The vote also included the state of Jammu and Kashmir where a former separatist and head of a faction of the regional People's Conference party, Sajjad Lone, has broken ranks to stand for election from Baramulla in the north of the state A clue to which party may take power lies with Tamil Nadu, the southern swing state in the 2004 elections swept by Congress ally Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and which now rules the state. But Congress this time has lost allies in the state, one of the biggest prizes in the national battle with 39 seats. The party faces the resurgence of the AIADMK party, led by former film star J. Jayalalithaa, a likely powerbroker after the polls. The BJP has no major ally in Tamil Nadu but could be supported by any of the two state parties if it is seen in a position to form a coalition government.
