THE risk of violence is rising in Georgia after a month of political deadlock between a president determined to cling to power and an opposition which lacks the numbers and unity to unseat him. President Mikheil Saakashvili, re-elected in January 2008 amid opposition allegations of fraud, has so far resisted demands to quit over his record on democracy and last year's disastrous war with Russia. The United States and Russia, each for its own strategic reasons, are watching out for instability in the potentially volatile region. Georgia is a major conduit for the transit of Caspian gas and oil to Western markets. Violence has already flared once at an evening protest in Tbilisi and analysts say Saakashvili must address opposition grievances if the political stalemate is to end peacefully, without mass unrest or a heavy police crackdown. “The dilemma of this situation is that, on the one hand it is a continued and serious challenge that cannot be ignored,” said Svante Cornell, research director at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. “But on the other hand, it's not a challenge of the magnitude that would risk unseating the government, and therefore you have deadlock.” A brief, bloodless mutiny at a tank base last week also cast doubt over the loyalty of the military. Georgia's army was humiliated last August when it tried to reconquer the breakaway region of South Ossetia, prompting a massive Russian counter-attack which crushed it in five days. Georgia was racked by civil war in the 1990s when opposition forces formed militia to overthrow President Zviad Gamsakhurdia. They accused him of suppressing all dissent after leading the country to independence from the Soviet Union. Fighting raged for weeks in the centre of Tbilisi and spread through the country after Gamsakhurdia broke out of his parliament building and fled the capital with supporters. Current protests are testing the patience of the police, who dispersed mass demonstrations against Saakashvili in 2007 with rubber bullets, beatings and tear gas and closed an opposition TV station at gunpoint, angering Georgia's Western backers. Saakashvili is wary of a repeat, particularly with NATO conducting month-long military exercises at an air base 25 km from the capital – “a clear signal of support to the ruling regime,” Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Sunday. Neighbouring big power Russia has long loathed Saakashvili and is hoping that the opposition movement will finally unseat him. The Georgian government constantly alleges Moscow-backed plots against Saakashvili but Russia denies any involvement. NATO exercises Tbilisi has drawn comfort from the NATO exercises going ahead and from Western diplomats publicly criticizing opposition protesters for clashes at a Tbilisi police base on Wednesday, the only violent flare-up since the opposition campaign began. Police have on the whole assumed a low profile and are said to be strongly loyal to Saakashvili. But it is not clear how long the government will tolerate paralysis in Tbilisi, or the threat that the opposition will expand roadblocks to the country's main east-west highway. Observers point to Independence Day on May 26 as a key date, when the military parades down Rustaveli Avenue. The avenue is blocked by dozens of mock prison cells erected by protesters. “The risk of continued violence and that this would degenerate into another type of ... violence is constantly present,” said Cornell. A meeting was scheduled on Monday between Saakashvili and the opposition. Political analysts said the government is looking to exploit a rift between moderate and hardline factions over how to respond to an offer from the authorities of dialogue on democratic reforms, rather than Saakashvili's resignation.
