WHILE Canada's opposition Liberals are threatening to trigger a new election to protest against government handling of the economic crisis, it seems unlikely Canadians will be voting any time soon. Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff, buoyed by recent polling numbers, demanded on Sunday that the minority Conservative government make unemployment payments more generous to help Canadians ride out the recession. “If the government will work with me, then we'll get it done. If they won't, then we'll have to have an election,” he said after a party conference confirmed him as the new leader. But analysts said Ignatieff's tough words were more of a warning to Prime Minister Stephen Harper than a genuine declaration that he is ready to bring down the Conservatives. Pollsters are divided over whether higher levels of Liberal support are strong enough to guarantee even a narrow victory. And to bring the Conservatives down the Liberals need the support of both the other opposition parties in the House of Commons, neither of which may be in the mood to co-operate. Nik Nanos, head of the Nanos Research polling firm, said an an election now – Canada's fourth in five years – would “really be a crap shoot for either one of the main parties”. Nanos Research and Ipsos Reid polls over the weekend put public support for the Liberals at 36 percent compared with 33 percent for the Conservatives – traditionally a very small gap to ensure even a narrow minority government. “If anyone was looking at the polling numbers ... and the general political environment, the conclusion would be that this isn't a good time to have an election. There are too many risks for all the parties,” Nanos told Reuters. John Wright of Ipsos Reid was more bullish than Nanos, saying the Liberals could win a minority now. “That is a compelling reason for the Bloc, New Democrats and Conservatives to thwart an election call any time soon and attack the new leader and the Liberals,” Wright told Reuters. Ignatieff appeared to moderate his position on Monday, saying he wants Harper to launch a probe of the unemployment payment system by the time Parliament breaks in June. This would rule out a national vote before the autumn session. Akaash Maharaj, a former top Liberal who teaches at the University of Toronto, said Ignatieff needed to show that he has given Harper a fair chance to govern. “I think Canadians will likely punish any political party that seems totally preoccupied with political gamesmanship,” he told Reuters. Ignatieff became Liberal leader last December, after the the party was humiliated in the October election. One reason was that the party had regularly backed Harper on confidence votes, allowing the opposition New Democrats and the Bloc Quebecois to portray the Liberals as weak. By making it clear he is no longer ready to automatically back the government, Ignatieff is forcing the other two parties to decide whether they want to keep Harper in power. “They seem to be getting cozy with the Conservatives. I sometimes wonder whether there's a little coalition forming there,” Ignatieff told CTV television on Sunday. Polls show popular support is slipping for both the New Democrats and the Bloc, which only fields candidates in French-speaking Quebec. Richard Schultz, a professor of politics at Montreal's McGill University, said this means a quick vote is unlikely. “He has turned the tables on the New Democrats and the Bloc. They don't want an election, so they're going to be the ones forced to support the government in some way,” he said. Last week, Harper dismissed the idea of any deal with the Bloc, which wants independence for Quebec. Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe said on Monday he would support policies that benefited Quebec – the same reasoning he gave when the Bloc regularly backed Harper in key votes after the Conservatives won power in early 2006.
