The queue to join the European Union is still growing in the global economic crisis but enlargement fatigue in some member states means accession will be long and slow for most applicants. Albania was the latest country to apply for membership this week, Montenegro joined other Western Balkan states in the waiting room late last year and Iceland is considering applying. Five years after the EU took in 10 new members in its biggest single wave of enlargement, these states' interest shows membership still has an appeal for countries seeking financial stability and symbolic acceptance into Europe's mainstream. “For those countries on the fringe, the EU still looks like a very good bet,” said Daniel Gros, an analyst at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels. “Iceland has seen the benefits of the euro as a safe haven. In the Balkans there are pretty weak economies that would benefit from the EU anchor. For the Balkans it is difficult to think of any area where there would not be benefits.” But accession is unlikely to be fast. Opinion polls suggest people in the older member states and are worried they will see no personal gain if countries with less developed economies are allowed into the 27-nation bloc. “In time of economic crisis people get more careful,” Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, whose country holds the EU presidency, said in February. Some leaders are wary of further rapid expansion because the latest enlargement, which allowed in Romania and Bulgaria in 2007, is regarded by some member states to have been rushed. Corruption and crime remain widespread in both countries. Lisbon Treaty Above all, the pace of enlargement will depend on whether the EU's Lisbon Treaty, intended to streamline decision-making, is approved by all member states. Without it, expansion could grind to a halt. “First there is the Lisbon Treaty,” said Roland Freudenstein of the Centre for European Studies. Then the politicians also need to go and explain the benefits to the people.” EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn this week listed the successes since Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Malta and Cyprus joined the bloc on May 1, 2004. He said the bloc, which has a population of almost 500 million, now had more weight in trade issues and enlargement had brought economic benefits to old and new member states alike. But the crisis has had a particularly big impact on the economies of the new member states from eastern and central Europe, cutting growth and pushing up unemployment. It also contributed to the fall of governments in Latvia and Hungary, both of which had to be bailed out. “Most of these first five years were economically easy,” Gros said. “But we will now see how this downward economic trend plays out and that is the key test.” A Eurobarometer poll published last December showed that although 59 percent of respondents in new member states believed enlargement had strengthened the EU, only 44 percent of those in old member states felt this way. The poll also showed only 39 percent of respondents believed the EU was handling the economic crisis in a coordinated way. “People are worried about their immediate needs. They are concerned about the loss of their job, the loss of national identity, and local competition,” said Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform in London. Pressing ahead Even so, EU membership is still seen as beneficial in states such as Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro, whose economies are less developed and stable than those in the EU. “I think it will take longer now... but sooner or later they are going to slip in,” Gros said. The new government in Iceland, whose economy collapsed in the credit crunch, is discussing applying for membership. EU officials have held out the prospect of something akin to a fast track process, enabling Iceland to enter from around 2011. But even Iceland, whose economy is well developed, would be unlikely to join any time soon. The traditional EU powers, France and Germany, have said enlargement must be on hold, except for Croatia, until the Lisbon treaty takes effect. That depends largely on a referendum in Ireland which is expected in October. Croatia hopes to join in 2011 but its accession is held up by a maritime dispute with Slovenia. Turkey, which is mainly Muslim, faces a lot of opposition to its accession drive. One incentive for the EU to press on with enlargement is its concern that closing the door could discourage less developed states to carry out economic and political reforms. This could increase the risk of instability or conflict in the Balkans. “The most important thing at the moment is to keep the process going. It is the process that improves countries that are trying to join,” Barysch said.
