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Fallout likely if fight goes into Swat
By Zeeshan Haider
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 29 - 04 - 2009

PAKISTANI security forces are fighting the Taleban to halt their advance across the volatile northwest amid growing concerns in the West that the militants are closing in on the capital of the nuclear-armed country.
The Taleban began expanding their influence in Malakand division, a mountainous region about 150 km northwest of Islamabad, this month after President Asif Ali Zardari reluctantly submitted to their demands for Shariah law there to end fighting in Swat valley. Swat is part of Malakand. Here are some questions and answers about the offensive and the Swat deal.
What is the scope of the
offensive?
Pakistani security forces launched an offensive on Sunday after militants, emboldened by the government's decision to cede to their demands, began expanding their influence across Malakand. Just days after Zardari's move, the Taleban moved fighters southwards into Buner, a district about 100 km (60 miles) from Islamabad and nearby Shangla district.
So far, Pakistan has only deployed hundreds of Frontier Constabulary, a police militia force, in Buner.
But west of Swat in the Lower Dir district, troops from the paramilitary Frontier Corps launched a counter-offensive, backed by artillery and helicopter gunships, after a truck convoy had come under attack. Fighting is restricted to Lower Dir. Government officials are calling on the militants to lay down arms and vacate Buner and Shangla district, southeast of Swat, or face action. There are growing expectations a broader offensive could be in the works.
Will Swat figure at Washington summit?
The fighting in Lower Dir came on the heels of a visit by Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Islamabad, and speculation abounds over the part Mullen may have played in persuading Pakistan to act.
Zardari is due to meet US President Barack Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Washington on May 6-7 in a three-way meeting. The Swat deal is expected to figure in those talks.
Zardari has pointed out he cannot unilaterally brush aside an agreement between the government in the North West Frontier Province, led by his ally, and religious clerics from the area.
Where does the Swat Deal for Shariah stand?
It's hanging in the balance.
The setting up of a Shariah justice system for Malakand was approved by parliament and signed by the president, but it has still to be implemented. Government officials say it won't be until the Taleban disarm.
Pakistani authorities struck a deal for Shariah in Swat with Sufi Mohammad, a radical cleric who renounced militancy after being released from jail last year in order to act as a go-between with the Taleban.
The government had hoped Mohammad would persuade the Taleban, led by his son-in-law Fazlullah, to lay down arms. Government officials say they will appoint judges for Shariah courts but Mohammad has to deliver on this first.
Mohammad's aide said talks with the government have been suspended to protest the military operation in Lower Dir. The Taleban are unlikely to lay down arms and fighting is expected to intensfy in the coming days.
What does Army think of Swat deal?
The Swat deal was struck after consultations with the army.
Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani said last week the military halted its operations in Swat early last year in order to give politicians space to negotiate, but said the army would not allow militants to impose their will on the country.
Military officials said they were ready to take on the militants but it is for the civilian government to decide the timing and scale of the operation.
Kayani has to counter a general perception that the army had become demoralized and reluctant to fight in Swat.
Has the Swat Deal weakened the civilian government?
The concession certainly made the government appear weak, and emboldened the Taleban. It also exposed a lack of coherence in Pakistan's broader polity.
A secular Pashtun nationalist party called the Awami National Party (ANP) first gave way to the militants' demands for Shariah, known as the Nizam-e-Adl, in Malakand.
The ANP leads the government in North West Frontier Province and is a coalition partner in the national government. But the party's politicians have struggled to impose leadership in NWFP, as many fear to leave their homes because of the militant threat.
The ANP asked a reluctant Zardari to approve the introduction of the Shariah for Malakand. The president then passed the issue to parliament, which approved it, leaving him with no option but to sign off on it.
Sufi Mohammad's denunciation of parliament, democracy and the Supreme Court forced all political parties, notably the main opposition Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, to rethink, and also helped reduce support for the deal. But there is plenty of unease over whether to use force to subdue Swat once again. Government officials say they plan to push through a security strategy through parliament on how to deal with militancy.


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