IF this Indian bellwether state of high-tech industry and struggling farmers is anything to go by, the ruling Congress party may suffer at the ballot box as regional parties woo frustrated voters. In Andhra Pradesh state, Congress faces problems which mirror a national trend, from farmers annoyed over the implementation of welfare schemes to an alliance of populist regional parties and the rise of a film star-turned-independent politician. The scenario could lead to Congress faring worse than in the 2004 election, weakening the party's chances of forming a strong coalition as it competes against the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party and an alliance of regional and left parties. In the 2004 vote, Congress and its allies swept Andhra Pradesh in a verdict on the BJP's “India Shining” campaign, which flagged up economic growth but failed to resonate with poor. But as the world's largest democracy votes in the April-May election, Congress's campaign in Andhra Pradesh of “inclusive” growth may not be enough to stay in power with the same number of seats that helped propel it to national victory five years ago. “The rural poor are not immediately ready to endorse all Congress' policies. The villagers asked how much money is going down the drain in terms of corruption,” said political science professor I. Ramabrahmam at the University of Hyderabad. Andhra Pradesh has 42 seats in the 543-seat parliament, the third-most for an Indian state. In 2004, Congress and its allies won 36 seats in the state. It mixes a slick new airport and silver chrome offices with some of the highest levels of suicides in the country as farmers struggle to repay loans, especially in drought-prone districts. In contrast to the pro-business reforms of the previous BJP government, Congress has launched flagship schemes which include more than $13 billion of loan waivers and a rural jobs guarantee scheme. But many complain little has been implemented. “The situation of farmers hasn't changed in the past five years,” said farmer leader P. Chengal Reddy. “Why are people turning to regional parties in Andhra Pradesh and India? Because the fundamental problems of the people have not been solved.” Opposition smells blood Sensing victory, the former BJP ally in Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has shed its pro-business “Shining India” image and forged a “grand alliance” with a regional party and India's two biggest leftist parties to embrace populism. The group may also win over voters by promising to grant Telangana region an old demand for independent statehood that Congress has ignored for the last five years. A new party led by a hugely popular southern film star could turn the election in the state into a three-horse race and further suck votes away from Congress. The TDP, led by former Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, has promised $40 a month and free colour TVs to struggling families. “It's Ctrl + Alt + Del for Chandrababu,” said one headline in a tongue-in-cheek reference to his former pro-business rule before his defeat in 2004. Some farmers are impressed by his change, others say it sounds too good to be true. “Naidu didn't give us a single rupee during his regime, so who will believe him when he promises us money?” said S. Ramdas Goud, a rice farmer in drought-prone Mahabubnagar district. Not to be outdone, the state Congress government has promised to extend free electricity it already gives to farmers. Suspicious about these two traditional parties, many voters could turn to Chiranjeevi, a movie superstar whose new party is popular with lower castes. He may rob Congress of key votes. All in all, Congress could do worse than in 2004 in Andhra Pradesh, a possible omen for its campaign in the rest of India. “On the whole, the countryside is not too happy with Congress,” said independent analyst Kuldip Nayar. “Tomorrow after the election when they sit together to form the government, regional parties are going to be very important.”
