led UPA completes its five year term when the 15th Lok Sabha is elected in April-May. Earlier, the BJP-led NDA likewise completed its term. One would have thought, given the relative stability of the last two coalitions, these would be sought to be consolidated by all the political parties in the fray. But the build-up to the coming elections shows trends in quite the opposite direction. Parties are preferring to fight the elections on their own. The Congress, at one stage seeking pre-poll alliances, has suddenly decided to go alone – well, almost. In the last three general elections the party has hovered between 140 to 145 seats in a House of 543. To reach the victory target of 272, Congress needs nearly 130 seats from its coalition partners. Since the Congress is a cipher in a state like Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the House, there has been a debate for the past several elections that a pre-poll alliance with Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party might enable the Congress to have some respectability in the state that was once the Congress citadel. Such an alliance on this occasion suited Mualayam too to block arch-rival Mayawati's extraordinary surge. In his anxiety to create an anti-Mayawati front, Mulayam also included former BJP leader, Kalyan Singh as an ally. Kalyan Singh was UP's Chief Minister during the demolition of Babari Masjid in December 1992. His appearance on the same stage as Mulayam caused Muslim leaders to denounce Mulayam. If the Congress still goes along with Mulayam, it will appear like a desperate trifle. In Bihar too, Congress presence is minimal. Little wonder as both Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan, sensing a strong show by Nitish Kumar, hardened their seat-sharing bargains with Congress. Terms offered were too humiliating for the Congress to accept. Both Mulayam and Lalu have their eyes on the post-poll power structure in New Delhi. They would both prefer a weakened, more manageable Congress to lead the UPA. In other words a weak Congress at the helm, steered by the allies. Should the Congress be reduced below 100 seats, the field in New Delhi opens up for all sorts of exciting combinations, with the two major parties either on the margins or in some supporting role. This would appear to be a recipe for what is being described as a third front to acquire prominence. For this idea to bloom, the Left Front, (which will probably reduce from 59 to 40 seats) will have to be the principal mover. In the post-poll horse-trading, Corporate India will allow this to happen only over its dead body. Instead, Corporate India would prefer the regional parties including all the components of the “third front”, to be given outside support by the BJP. This might well be to the advantage of the Congress too. There are several reasons why the Congress may look forward to such an outcome: • Such a structure would be so inherently unstable as to make the UPA look like a happy dream that has faded. • The dismal economic picture looming over the horizon could lead to unmanageable social distress. The new government could pretty soon be showered with tomatoes and rotten eggs. These may well be the considerations behind Congress managers talking of “ahooti” (sacrifice) in private after these elections. In other words, ignore the seductions of power this time. The Indian mind “reveres” renunciation. With reverence comes charisma. This charisma will bring Rahul Gandhi riding a wave in 2014. In fact, given the instability of structure emerging in May, the next elections could well be in 2012! But all of this appraisal is so unacceptably speculative that an urge to turf it out of the window should be irresistible. We all know that the race at present is for the largest single party status. Even a further diminished Congress may pip others to the post on this score. And then? Well, after all Manmohan Singh has been projected as the Prime Minister. Seductions of power being what they are, he will be able to cobble up a coalition. Yes, but the noisy, demanding coalition partners, the impending economic chaos will not clear the atmosphere for Rahul to glide into power in 2012 or 2014 without a series of almighty bumps.
