THE outstanding development in the Middle East today is that the United States and Iran are on course to improve their relations, which have been frozen in sterile hostility for the past 30 years. The impact of the improvement will be felt on every political relationship in the region. Israel has expressed great unease. Its greatest fear is that a US-Iran detente will erode its own position as America's closest regional ally, and might even threaten its monopoly of nuclear weapons. It is pressuring the US to make its dialogue with Iran short – if dialogue there must be – and to redouble its sanctions against Tehran, in order to compel it to end its nuclear program. All the regional actors have noted that the US and Iran are attempting to reach out to each other. Iran's President Mahmud Ahmadinejad sent Barack Obama a letter of congratulations on his election to the US presidency November last year, while Obama has now responded handsomely – on March 19, on the occasion of Nowruz, the Iranian new year – with a three and a half minute video message to ‘the people and leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran', in which he called for a ‘new beginning' to the relationship, as well as for talks ‘on the full range of issues before us' on the basis of ‘mutual respect.' Applause for Obama's move has come from around the world – notably from Russia and Europe. Interestingly, it has also been welcomed by Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmad Al-Khalifa, foreign minister of Bahrain, a country that hosts an important US naval base, and that has long relied on the United States for protection against Iranian expansionism. All the Gulf States will need to ponder what a US-Iranian rapprochement could mean for them. Meanwhile, Obama's message to Iran will serve to confirm his reputation as a man of peace – an American leader who, in great contrast to his predecessor, has chosen diplomacy rather than war. Another evident conclusion is that Obama has understood that Iran's help will be needed to stabilize Iraq; to curb the Taleban in Afghanistan; to moderate hard-line Palestinian factions in the search for an Arab-Israeli settlement; and to contribute to Lebanon's political harmony. Iran has become a regional power that can no longer be isolated or ignored, since its influence extends into all the inter-connected conflicts in the area. It is striking that Obama has decided to act now – and thereby give a boost to Ahmadinejad – rather than wait for the outcome of the Iranian elections on June 12. It suggests that America's Iran watchers have reached the conclusion that Ahmadinejad stands a good chance of being reelected, and is probably the man with whom the US will ultimately have to deal. Iranian spokesmen have reacted favorably to Obama's message. But they have added that Iran wants actions from America as well as words. It is clear that Iran would like the US to recognize – and to express regret – for its overthrow of Prime Minister Mohammad Mussadiq in 1953, for the shooting down of an Iranian passenger plane in 1988, for its backing of Saddam Hussein in the eight-year Iraq-Iran war of 1980-88. But, while these are real grievances, they relate to events that are long past. Today, there is a glaring contrast between Obama's words of conciliation addressed to Tehran and the continued attempts by US Treasury officials – Stuart Levey prominent among them – to broaden financial sanctions against Iran, starve its foreign trade of finance, and force international banks to suspend all business with Iranian banks. As recently as this month, the US blacklisted eleven companies linked to Iran's Bank Milli. In addition, Dennis Ross, the recently-appointed Obama Administration's point-man on Iran, has long been closely associated with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), a think tank dedicated to influencing America's Middle East policy in a pro-Israeli direction. WINEP continues to campaign stridently for sanctions against Iran, and for military action if sanctions fail. Obama will need to resolve these contradictions if he is to be heard in Tehran, and if the dialogue he is seeking is not to be sabotaged by officials and special interests in his own government. In any event, these are early days. No one yet knows what the US may offer Iran in exchange for a freeze of its nuclear program, or what might be the terms of a ‘grand bargain' between Washington and Tehran, if the coming tentative dialogue ever blossoms into a real and sustained negotiation.
