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Russian infighting could hurt power
By Oleg Shchedrov
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 22 - 02 - 2009

A SERIES of media attacks by conservatives on Russia's liberal finance minister have fuelled fresh speculation about strains in the ruling tandem of President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
In a Sunday televised address, Medvedev praised the policy of Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, for his focus on maintaining macro-economic stability during the economic crisis. But then on Wednesday, railways chief Vladimir Yakunin, a Putin ally, attacked Kudrin's policy in a newspaper interview. “Yakunin probably would not have given the interview without clearing it with his close friend Putin,” Eurasia Group consultancy said in a comment.
Yakunin's attack – in which he accused the financial authorities of not acting sooner to stop the flight of foreign currency – was the third of the week and followed criticism from Yuri Luzhkov, Moscow's powerful mayor, and the head of the upper house of parliament Sergei Mironov.
“Monetarism should be abandoned,” Luzhkov said in an interview for Kommersant daily in which he called for Kudrin to be sacked and his policies reversed.
Ten years ago, a similar attack launched by conservatives led by Luzhkov and a prominent politician Yevgeny Primakov amid a bitter financial crunch, ended in a political U-turn. Liberal Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko was then fired and replaced with Primakov who abandoned “monetarism” and employed a communist as his deputy.
But analysts say there is a fundamental difference between the infighting now and a decade ago: today's attacks do not challenge the powers of either Putin or Medvedev.
“This is all about money, not politics now,” said Alexei Mukhin, head of the Centre of Political Information think tank. Despite the political infighting, the double act of Putin and Medvedev appears to be holding firm backed by large cash reserves and Putin's high standing in Russia which benefits Medvedev.
Both are publicly sticking to the same anti-crisis course backing Kudrin's efforts at maintaining macroeconomic stability and criticizing ministers for being slow in delivering hundreds of billions dollars of a rescue package to the real economy.
But the partnership would come under pressure if either man was drawn into taking sides in the present factional squabbling.
The fight over money has grown intense because there is suddenly less of it to go around. The sharp fall in the price of oil – Russia's main revenue earner – has forced the finance ministry to slash planned budget spending.
Powerful groups unhappy
State corporations such as oil major Rosneft and carmarker AvtoVAZ are among the losers of Kudrin's anti-crisis policy of resisting capital controls and guarding the cash stored in reserve funds. The corporations have a strong cabinet lobby represented by powerful deputy prime minister Sergei Ivanov, another ally of Putin.
“Kudrin is in charge of handing out cash from reserves,” Mukhin said. “There are powerful groups unhappy about the way he does this and public attacks are their way of appealing to Putin.” In fact, public clashes between camps loyal to the Kremlin could even help it consolidate power in troubled times.
Putin, who was president from 2000-08, consolidated Kremlin control by reining in rival centres of power. Previously elected regional governors are now appointed by the Kremlin and Putin loyalists dominate parliament. “The difference now is that the criticism does not challenge Kremlin power as it did in 1998,” said Masha Lipman of Carnegies Endowment for Peace. “On the contrary, both camps acknowledge Putin as a legitimate mediator in their disputes.”
Some analysts believe, though, that the fight for resources inside the ruling camp could eventually help Medvedev emerge from Putin's shadow and take on a more powerful role.


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