The Obama administration promises sweeping changes in American foreign policy, and some US adversaries are nibbling the bait. Vice President Joe Biden hit most of the right notes in his Munich speech this weekend, declaring – among a long list of initiatives – Washington's readiness to push the “reset button” with Russia, talk with rather than browbeat Iran and revitalize the bruised NATO alliance. US troops are leaving Iraq. A more nuanced Afghan policy is in the works. Barack Obama won't rest without progress on an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. And so forth, and so on, went the vice president's address Saturday at the 45th Munich Security Conference. He painted the global landscape in new colors, drawing stark contrasts with the Bush administration, which had alienated or chilled relations with many American friends and deepened animosity among its enemies. “The US administration sent a very strong signal, and the signal was heard,” Sergei Ivanov, the Russian deputy prime minister said after talking with Biden on Sunday. In the course of the weekend gathering, Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani spoke of a “golden opportunity for the United States” – suggesting if Washington was serious about conciliation Tehran could respond in kind. He said more than once that the US needed to change “to a chess game instead of a boxing match.” In the high-stakes world of diplomacy, those remarks reveal a deep interest – readiness perhaps – to change course. At the same time, Obama is nowhere near setting the hook and hauling the catch on board. And success with the Russians or the Iranians or any of the other international actors now at odds with the United States could depend on what may be impossible: A change in American strategy rather than an alteration of tactics. Altering strategy often means changing goals, an undertaking that can have huge political consequences. Whether Obama is willing to take those risks cannot be forecast. The strategic changes involved would be fundamental and set off an explosion of opposition among American foreign policy traditionalists, neo-conservative thinkers especially. Obama takes over management of US global relations from an administration that was guided by the blunt view that America was the only superpower – after the collapse of the Soviet Union – and had the economic resources and military strength to insist that Washington's will be done. That produced the US invasion and occupation of Iraq in spite of heavy opposition from most European allies – Britain and to a degree Italy excepted. Iraq policy in turn has bedeviled US efforts to pacify Afghanistan and hunt down Osama Bin Laden in neighboring Pakistan. The Europeans have been far from wholehearted in supporting that US military effort, which has gone seriously awry. Then there's Iran. After the Islamic revolution there and the extended crisis over the hostage-taking of American diplomats 30 years ago, the one-time ally has become an implacable foe. And it's a foe with serious ambitions: The destruction of Israel, support of anti-Israeli organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, and the alleged construction of a nuclear arsenal. Iran is bent on becoming a regional power in the Middle East and its chances of success have been much advanced by events in neighboring Iraq, where the US ouster of Saddam Hussein removed a major brake in Tehran's ambitions. All of that leaves aside what the Kremlin sees as the provocative US determination to push NATO membership with countries that border Russia and were former satellites of or even republics in the old Soviet Union. NATO expansion – which began in earnest under President Bill Clinton – enabled the Bush administration to declare its plans to install a missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland, compounding Kremlin anger and insecurity. While Washington insists those missiles are designed to counter any Iranian attack on Europe, even Russia, Moscow is not buying the argument. Beyond that, the world's terror outfits will not be swayed by any fine words. Al-Qaeda will remain determined to continue its campaign to knock the United States off keel. It is widely believed that Bin Laden will repeat attacks of the scope of Sept. 11, 2001, as soon as the terrorist organization feels able. But Obama is in the midst of a considerable honeymoon with most of the rest of the Muslim world, which, for now, accepts his promises of respect and evenhandedness after nearly a decade of believing it was held in low esteem by the Bush administration. The Arab subset of that world likewise is enthralled with Obama and his energized efforts to broker an Israeli-Palestinian peace. Thus, serious progress on any of these foreign policy puzzles may require: u Backing away from NATO expansion and quietly letting the Russians know plans for missile defenses in their former sphere of influence is a matter for negotiation. Washington might demand a less belligerent Kremlin stand on Georgia, where it is threatening to expand its military presence in two breakaway ethnic zones. Obama might also win a reversal on Kyrgystan's recent decision to boot the United States from an air base there that is critical to supplying American forces in Afghanistan. Moscow says Kyrgystan made the decision independently, but the move coincided with the Kremlin promising a huge loan to its economically failing former Central Asian republic. u Successfully pressuring Israel to make peace with the Palestinians by withdrawing to pre-1967 war borders and sharing Jerusalem as a capital. That would cement US relations with the Arab world and could empower the United States to make further demands on isolating terror outfits like Al-Qaeda. u A tacit acknowledgment of Washington's readiness to accept and respect Iran as a major player in the Middle East, but only if Tehran obliterates its nuclear program, accepts Israel as a recognized member of the neighborhood, and ends support for Hamas and Hezbollah. Those are just some of the strategic changes that might convince the world Obama plans to do more than just talk about foreign policy changes. Given the huge political dangers and the unknowable and unforeseen consequences of making those changes, it's likely Obama will be rebaiting the diplomatic hook many more times before it's clear if his and Biden's words presage strategic change.
