The bitter 15-month conflict in Libya appears to have reached a watershed. The long and tortuous peace negotiations sponsored by the United Nations have almost concluded with the rebel parliament in Tripoli, the General National Congress, throwing away its last chance to take a role in forming a new government of national unity. The dramatic events of the last few days began with a session devoted to Libya at the UN General Assembly a week ago. Rival delegates to the Peace Dialogue initiated by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) sat silently while UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon echoed the calls by other international delegates for all sides to seize the chance for peace. On the table was no less than the seventh draft of a National Accord, chiseled out over eight months of complex negotiations overseen by the Spanish diplomat and UNSMIL head Bernardino Leon. Back in the Moroccan resort of Skhirat, where the majority of the peace talks have been taking place, the only part of the deal that needed to be hammered out was the composition of a new presidential council, made up of a prime minister, two deputies and two senior ministers. Both the GNC and the internationally-recognized House of Representatives, currently driven to meet in Tobruk in eastern Libya, were, along with independent members of the Peace Dialogue, supposed to submit names for the presidential council. UNSMIL would then chair a meeting of all parties to select five names. As far as Leon and everyone else was concerned, except for these names, the National Accord was a done deal. Only the rebel parliament had yet to submit their candidates. On Tuesday night a bullish Leon said he expected the GNC to meet Wednesday and produce their list, meaning that a presidential council might even be chosen by Wednesday night. In the event an angry and divisive 12-hour GNC meeting in Tripoli produced a decision to refuse to submit any names until “substantial amendments” were made to the National Accord itself. This was too much for Leon, who to widespread dismay, has gone the extra mile and then some, to accommodate the truculent rival negotiating teams. At a dramatic press conference in the early hours of Thursday morning, he announced that the deal would not be changed and that the formation of the presidential council would go ahead without input from the GNC. The rebel parliament, nominally representing thuggish Islamist militias that make up Libya Dawn which controls much of western Libya, appears to have made a major blunder. The House of Representatives, though it has many reservations about the National Accord, has kept with the program. Under the deal, it will remain the legitimate parliament but a State Council likely to be dominated by GNC members will have considerable spoiling power. Many predict that the National Unity government will quickly become paralyzed. Yet the international community is promising to back the new government and by extension the House of Representatives with security assistance. It also seems likely that the UN embargo on arms will be lifted. That would enable the Libyan Army in the east and far west of the country to better tackle Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) terrorists in Benghazi and if absolutely necessary, move against Libyan Dawn militias in the territory they hold.
