US air combat controllers were given an hour's warning on Wednesday that the first Russian air strikes in Syria were about to be launched. They doubtless held off attacks on areas held in Syria by Daesh (the so-called IS) for fear of a mix-up between Coalition warplanes and Russian aircraft. In the event, they need not have bothered. No Daesh targets were attacked even though this was what Moscow claimed was happening. Instead Putin's jets struck at Free Syrian Army targets, most of them far away from the terrorists. All of these airstrikes were clearly in support of the forces of the struggling dictator Basher Assad. It might have been imagined that Putin would have been more subtle. At the United Nations General Assembly this week, he said that the terrorism of extremists had to be confronted. The expectation therefore was that Russian airstrikes would focus on Daesh. To have attacked the Free Syrian Army, who are very far from being extremists, was therefore a shock. It was equally shocking that in these raids, at least 37 civilians were killed and dozens injured. Moscow is clearly making far less of an effort than the Washington and its Coalition partners, to avoid what the Americans call “collateral damage”. This is despite Russian aerial surveillance capabilities that appear at least to match those of the Americans. It was notable that cockpit footage put out by the Russians of the devastating detonation of one of their smart bombs on Wednesday, was of distinctly better quality than that collected from US warplanes.
Not only did the Russians only give just one hour's notice of their raids but they did it aggressively. They warned Coalition aircraft to stay away. Given that no specific targets were mentioned, this effectively meant an interruption to the established air campaign against Daesh. It may even be that Daesh were tipped off about the Russians' Free Syrian Army targets, so that at some attack sites, they could move in afterwards and clean up. Assad is content to let the Russians attack the Free Syrian Army for him while the American-led Coalition attacks Daesh. The Free Syrian Army are the real revolutionaries and as such the most potent threat to the dictatorship. Daesh by contrast is seen as a potent regional and indeed global terrorist threat. Washington and its allies would be assaulting Daesh regardless of whether or not it posed a threat to Assad. Now Russian and US commanders are to meet to coordinate their operations. The concern is that there is a clear risk of collisions between super fast jets. Moreover both the Russians and the Coalition have their own surveillance and control aircraft. The Russians are also probably deploying drones along with the air forces that make up the Coalition. And both sides will be busy gathering data on the performance of each other's aircraft and weapons systems. Yet it must be asked what the point is of this mooted coordination between the two air operations if in reality neither is likely to be pursuing the same targets. Given that Russian warplanes apparently hit Free Syrian Army unit trained and equipped by the Americans, of more concern to the Russian and American commanders when they meet, will be the possibility that Coalition warplanes will seek to stop Moscow's attacks on the Free Syrian Army.
