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The numbers game
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 05 - 06 - 2015

The United States has said that more than 10,000 Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) terrorists have been killed since the US-led program of air strikes, in which Saudi war planes have played a significant role, began last August. More than 4,100 missions have been launched against terror targets in Iraq and Syria.
These figures suggest that Daesh-bigots are being killed at the rate of around 50 a day though each mission is responsible for only 2.4 deaths. This latter figure can be explained by the reality that mission planners have been more likely to detect and attack supply vehicles than concentrations of terrorist fighters. There have also been intelligence-led precision bombings on gatherings of the Daesh leadership.
According to US Deputy Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, Daesh now controls 25 percent less territory as a result of the air strikes. In February, the US was putting the strength of the terrorists at between 20,000 and 32,000. If Washington is right about the 10,000 dead, to say nothing of those injured in air strikes, then, even with a supply of fresh foreign fanatics in its ranks, the terror organization would appear to be very seriously degraded.
For those who ask how then the city of Ramadi could have fallen to Daesh last month, the harsh truth is that it was not overrun in bitter street-to-street fighting. The Iraqi army threw Ramadi away. There were at least 2,000 heavily-armed Iraqi troops in the city, who had had plenty of time to prepare strong defensive positions. Satellite intelligence appeared to show that the attack was mounted by a mere 200 or so terrorists. They had probably not even expected their assault to succeed, so great were the forces ranged against them.
Yet very soon after the fighting began, the morale of the Iraqi troops and their commanders collapsed. The pictures of soldiers fleeing through the streets in their vehicles are a memento of the shame that these men and their leaders now carry. What was worse, no attempt appeared to have been made to destroy key stores of ammunition and weapons. Thus not only did the terrorists take a key objective, but they found it packed with war materiel that they can now use in their obscene campaign.
Though there has been no independent verification of the figure of 10,000 Daesh dead, the fact that they could only send a few hundred men against a heavily-armed force ten times their size, might suggest that they no longer have the numbers to deploy. But then, as the rout at Ramadi demonstrated, they did not actually need to field a larger gang of fighters.
The plain truth is that Iraqi soldiers are terrified of Daesh and the automatic execution that will follow if they are captured. By the same token, the terrorists must themselves be terrified of air strikes and drone attacks. US war planners made clear that the air campaign was going to take time, maybe as much as three years, to destroy the terrorists' capability. The airmen are doing their part. But all the airstrikes in the world will not succeed unless they are followed up on the ground. It is high time that Iraqi soldiers abandoned their fear and turned aggressively on the enemy that threatens everything they ought to care for.


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