WHO won this round of battle? With oil prices creeping and crossing the $60-mark, there is a growing buzz all around that Opec, led by Saudi Arabia, has emerged victorious in this round. And the debate is raging. When in that decisive ministerial in Vienna on November 27, 2014, Opec finally opted not to cut output - as some felt then imperative to strengthen the markets - rather than keeping it steady - pundits underlined that the Gulf oil producers were endeavoring to flush out new competitors from the arena. Many believed the strategy also converged with the geopolitical objectives of the Gulf oil producers. Markets have strengthened in the meantime. Some are also beginning to feel relieved - the strategy was working. While talking to The Financial Times, an unnamed Saudi official, reportedly confirmed this was part of the kingdom's strategy; “there is no doubt about it, the price fall of the last several months has deterred investors away from expensive oil including US shale, deep offshore and heavy oils,” he said, adding that “Saudi Arabia wants to extend the age of oil … we want oil to continue to be used as a major source of energy and we want to be the major producer of that energy.” No policy reversal seems in sight at the moment. Opec's monthly oil report said the kingdom's production rose to a record high of 10.3 million bpd in April, a slight rise over the previous month's total of 10.29 million bpd. This is the highest oil production level in more than three decades. The strategy has still to go a long way further. The Paris-based International Energy Agency, however, believes the battle for markets share is just getting started. In its monthly oil market report, the IEA confirms that Opec's tactic was working - to some extent. The relentless output increment of the US shale oil output is halting - courtesy months of cost-cutting. The Agency now expects the US shale oil output growth to slow by 80,000 barrels a day this month. IEA now estimates that the number of rigs running in the US plunged around 60% in response to lower oil prices. The US shale had “buckled” in April “bringing a multiyear winning streak to an apparent close,” the IEA noted. The agency is predicting a 57,0000 bpd-decline in the US output for May and a further 86,000 bpd will disappear in June. However, other non-OPEC producers too continue to ramp up production, IEA highlighted, raising its forecast of 2015 non-OPEC production growth by 200,000 bpd to 830,000 bpd. Russia's output too jumped an unexpected 185,000 bpd year-on-year in April and Brazilian production was up 17% in the first quarter, the IEA added. Meanwhile, production in China, Vietnam and Malaysia has also shown persistently strong growth. The IEA expects Chinese oil production to increase by 100,000 barrels a day this year to 4.3 million barrels a day. A recent rally in oil prices could also give US shale oil producers a fresh lease of life. “It would thus be premature to suggest that OPEC has won the battle for market share. The battle, rather, has just started,” the IEA underlined. IEA report then further adds that Opec's decision not to cut output in November was only “the first step in a plan that includes actually ramping up output and aggressively investing in future production capacity.” While non-OPEC producers are cutting costs, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are all expanding their drilling programs. Iraq's oil production hit its highest level since 1979 in April and Iranian supplies hit their highest since July 2012. The IEA thus points out, in rather clear terms, that it would still be too early to suggest if Opec has finally won the battle for market space. US shale producers too are contesting the success of the Opec strategy in squeezing them out. EOG Resources, the largest shale oil producer in the US, is projecting a return to “double-digit” production growth, if the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, rises to $65 per barrel or higher. Occidental Petroleum Corp. too has boosted its planned production for the year. Other drillers too are saying they would open the taps if WTI touches $70-mark. And in the meantime, oil production in North Dakota too has increased by 1 percent despite obvious signs of a slowdown in the state's shale reserve areas. As per the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) oil production report in March, the last full month for which data was available, was 1.19 million barrels per day, up from the 1.18 million bpd in February. The increase comes despite a drop in the number of rigs active in the No. two oil producer in the nation. “The drilling rig count dropped 25 from February to March, 17 more from March to April, and has since fallen 8 more from April to today,” the NDIC said in its monthly report. The rig count of 83 is the lowest since January 2010. Yet the output is up. The strategy to flood the crude market and squeeze out US producers won't work, and the claim of success is premature, Harold Hamm, the founder of Oklahoma-based Continental Resources said late last week on CNBC's “Squawk Box”. The strategy adopted by Opec has “ almost guaranteed us an outlet to world markets.” It might in fact help rally support in Washington for lifting the decades-old US export ban, prohibiting American producers from selling crude overseas, he said. “We've had our hands tied behind our backs here without being able to export oil,” said Hamm. “It looks like now we may get that opportunity.” It is perhaps in this perspective that investment bank Goldman Sachs is suggesting the rebound in crude prices was “premature” as there's still far more oil being pumped and stored than the world needs. Opec strategy is working, markets have definitely improved, yet, the war is on. The final hurrah is still to be made!
