The fact that no one expected anything to emerge from Tuesday's US-Russian talks effectively underwrote their success. Had they ended in rancor, with both sides refusing to join in a final press conference, no one would have been surprised. But US Secretary of State John Kerry, his opposite number Sergei Lavrov and Russian president Vladimir Putin did not descend on the Black Sea resort of Sochi to have a shouting match. There had clearly been careful advance preparation by officials in Moscow and Washington. The surprise was that the talks ran over schedule and lasted for more than eight hours. The smiles and the handshakes at the end looked genuine enough and the Lavrov-Kerry body language betrayed no bitter tensions. So what had the three men and their aides found to talk about for such a long time? The occupation of the Crimea and Russian military and financial support for Ukrainian separatists will have been high on Kerry's agenda. But then the Russians may well have asked about the current NATO military exercise named Hedgehog 2015 at the Tapa training range in Estonia. Thousands of troops from eight NATO members are conducting a war game not very far from the frontier with Russia. In Washington's eyes, these maneuvers are designed to demonstrate the mutual “defensive” commitment of the NATO allies to each other. Moscow of course does not see it that way. It sponsored the Ukrainian insurgency following the overthrow of Kremlin ally Viktor Yanukovych and Ukraine's attempts to move closer to the EU and even NATO membership. From Russia's point of view, the Americans and their allies were seeking to move their tanks further up the Russian lawn. The 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia was a response triggered by the selfsame plan for that country to join NATO and host US bases. It is of course all about power and influence. Putin has made no secret of his view that the breakup of the old Soviet Union was an all-round disaster for Russia. Little by little, he is seeking to reassert the Kremlin's influence over the former Soviet territories. The priority has been to counter Washington's greater wealth and military power. Historically, Ukraine has always been seen not only as a major agricultural and industrial source for Moscow, but also as an invaluable geographic buffer against invasion. Even the most rabid Republican on Capitol Hill will scoff at the idea that the United States has any aggressive intent toward Russia. But then what would be the reaction of that same Congressman if Russia were conducting significant military operations right alongside the US border? There was considerable anger in Washington in 2008 when Russian warships joined in Caribbean naval war games with left-wing Venezuela. But the key event that Washington chooses to forget was the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, which brought the world, for the first and hopefully last time ever, closest to nuclear war. The Americans were appalled that the Soviet Union was establishing a strong military presence in Fidel Castro's Cuba, just 144 kilometers away from the Florida coast. And the Americans also overlook the reality that, for better or worse, they are the only nation to have actually used atomic weapons in anger with the destruction of Japan's Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.
