TURKEY's ruling AK Party is rapidly losing the support of liberals and business leaders who once saw it as an engine of reform, confronting it with serious challenges three months before municipal elections. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted AK Party won wide praise in Turkey's liberal circles and financial markets for implementing bold EU-friendly reforms during their first term in office, in what many dubbed a “silent revolution.” But with those reforms halted and graft allegations swirling, critics accuse Erdogan of becoming increasing autocratic and say the AK Party today resembles the same establishment parties it swept out of power six years ago. With the $700 billion economy slowing, those critics - in both the liberal middle classes and the moderate Islamic press - see a danger that painfully realized gains will be squandered in a country facing serious social and economic difficulties on its desired path towards joining the European Union. Markets are grumbling over what they see as dithering in signing a deal with the IMF to shield Turkey from the global economic crisis. Summing up a climate of disillusionment that has extended to traditional pro-AK Party constituencies in recent months, a commentator in the religious-leaning Zaman newspaper wrote recently of Erdogan: “He came like Obama, but turned into some sort of Bush.” The AK Party, which emerged at 2002 polls as a coalition of religious, center-right and nationalist elements, is still the only viable party in the face of a discredited opposition, political analysts say. But municipal elections in March will test its strength. Erdogan is still the most popular politician by far, but some opinion polls point to an erosion in support. Growing discontent with political forces could lead to the emergence of new parties, triggering defections. “The AK Party broke many taboos with its reforms in its first years of government between 2002 and 2004, but it has undergone a transformation and has stopped being the party of reform. The problem now is that Turkey's rosy economic ride is over and we have big problems,” said Cengiz Aktar, professor at Istanbul's Bahcesehir University and a liberal commentator. “Turkey's political center can transform the oddest party into a mainstream party very quickly,” Aktar said. EU profile Drawing support from the traditionally excluded Anatolian masses, the AK Party swept to power as established ‘secularist' parties were crushed by a public tired of personal and factional infighting, economic mismanagement, and corruption. The AK Party's pro-EU profile also attracted liberals, intellectuals and business leaders, who see the EU as a force to resolve the historic contradictions of an autocratic state founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk after World War One. For decades, Turkey had been ruled by an insular and ossified political establishment in Ankara and Istanbul that rotated the same old familiar faces; the AK Party stormed the political center from the periphery. In its first years in power, Turkey opened EU accession talks, the economy boomed, foreign investors flocked in and intractable disputes such as the Kurdish conflict appeared headed for a breakthrough. Erdogan was the first leader to admit the existence of a “Kurdish problem” in Turkey. But miscalculations by Erdogan - particularly his attempt to end a ban on Muslim headscarves at universities - as well as allegations of corruption and foot-dragging over EU reforms, dissipated any momentum the AK Party won after securing re-election with an increased majority in last July's polls. The abrupt end of Turkey's economic bonanza and what critics call Erdogan's increasingly irascible mood have led commentators to ask themselves if his expiry date has come. Erdogan's recent behavior has raised concerns he is isolated among his small group of loyal advisers. He has attacked the media for running stories of alleged corruption and has rescinded the accreditation of journalists who have criticized his leadership style. “The AKP, which was able to gain the support of nearly half of voters in the general election last year, finds itself besieged from all directions,” wrote Sahin Alday in a recent opinion piece titled: “Beginning of the end for AKP power?” The AK Party defends Erdogan and calls such talk unfounded. “Turkey is not an easy country to rule,” said Ali Riza Alaboyun, an AK Party MP. “Erdogan is a very strong leader, there is no doubt about that, but leaders are criticized in every country. We have not lost our reformist drive,” he said. The military has unseated four elected governments in the last 50 years and holds wide power behind the scenes. The government is in talks to sign a new loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund, a stabilizing force given global financial turmoil, but analysts say it needs to pick up its reformist drive to deal with structural problems such as unemployment and a fast
