SRI Lankans go to polls on Thursday to elect a new president, with Mahinda Rajapaksa seeking a third term. That the election is taking place nearly two years ahead of schedule tells us something about the declining political fortunes of Rajapaksa who first came to power in 2005 and was re-elected in 2010. The 2010 election was conducted when Rajapaksa was at the height of his popularity as the leader who ended a 37-year-old guerrilla war after defeating the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) the previous year. The LTTE, one of the world's most ruthless terrorist organizations, was fighting for a separate homeland for Tamils in Sri Lanka's northeast where they are in a majority. Thursday's election comes at a time when Rajapaksa's popularity is fading fast. There is a perception that the longer Rajapaksa delays the next election, the smaller will be his chances of victory. The forces ranged against him are formidable. Maithripala Sirisena, who was health minister in his cabinet, is the common opposition candidate. To make matters worse, 23 of his party legislators in the 225-member Parliament have defected to join the rival camp. Political parties representing the minority Tamils and Muslims, who account for a quarter of the total vote, have rallied behind the former health minister. With the defection of Sirisena, the majority Buddhists, who are mainly ethnic Sinhalese, are split down the middle. Both Rajapaksa and Sirisena are from the majority community. International opinion is also turning against the president. Denial by the US Embassy in Colombo that America is “pumping money” into Sri Lanka to topple Rajapaksa will only strengthen the impression that no love is lost between the tiny island nation and the world's only superpower. US and other Western nations as well as neighboring India have called on Colombo to dismantle the military camps in the island's former war zone. Rajapaksa has also attracted international censure for alleged human rights violations committed during the final phase of the anti-LTTE war when up to 40,000 civilians were killed by Sri Lankan security forces. But the president has one advantage. Sri Lankan opposition is divided and more vulnerable than he is. So there is a slim chance of Rajapaksa winning the election, though with a narrow margin — relying heavily on Sinhala nationalist themes and accusing the opposition of siding with separatists. The big question is what he will do with a fresh six-year mandate. There are two courses open to him. One is to continue the same policies that have attracted charges of antidemocratic behavior at home and Sinhalese chauvinism abroad. Domestic opponents say the president holds wide-ranging powers, giving his family a tight grip on the economy and politics of Sri Lanka. There is growing discontent at the high cost-of-living and lack of an economic peace dividend. Independent journalists and civil society activists face intimidation and arrest. The second, more prudent, course is to pursue reconciliation and renew negotiations with the elected Tamil leadership.Tamils are now prepared for autonomy in a united Sri Lanka. As a first step, military control over the north and east needs to be relaxed. The government should initiate action to resettle and rehabilitate hundreds of thousands of Tamil civilians displaced by the war and provide livelihood opportunities for them. The families of those who died, disappeared or were detained for long periods without trial need compensation. Rajapaksa or whoever wins the election should realize that the decimation of LTTE does not mean an end to the Tamil problem in Sri Lanka. Though LTTE has suffered a crushing defeat, its support base continues to remain intact. Any organization claiming to be the protector of Tamil interests can draw on that support and revive the conflict though they may not adopt LTTE's brutal tactics. Tamils have genuine grievances over education and employment. LTTE's terrorist excesses should not be used as an excuse to ignore them. LTTE supremo Velupillai Prabhakaran's tragedy was that he did not know where to stop. He overreached himself. Rajapaksa should not commit the same mistake and destroy his greatest legacy to the whole world: the slaying of the dragon of terrorism. If Prabhakaran was one of the most successful guerrilla leaders of modern times, Rajapaksa is the only leader in recent history who can claim to have led a counterinsurgency campaign to a successful conclusion. He should have ennobled his battlefield victory with imaginative gestures and meaningful concessions to the Tamils at the negotiating table. There is still a chance to do that.
