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A question of trust
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 03 - 04 - 2008

PRESIDENT George Bush, nearing the end of his stay in White House, is apparently sowing trouble for his successor. In his efforts to salvage his legacy on the world stage, President Bush has pressed NATO to put Ukraine and Georgia on the path to membership despite French and German qualms that it could further strain Moscow's relations with the West. But Russian President Vladimir Putin, a seasoned politician, as he is, won't take things lying down and is bound to react making things extremely difficult for the new face in the White House.
It is understandable that anti-Russian leaders in both of these former Soviet republics want to join the Western military bloc. They have bitter memories of past domination by Moscow and suffer today from Russian bullying and blackmailing. In Ukraine, however, the government's pursuit of NATO membership lacks strong popular opinion as opposition runs especially high among Ukraine's sizeable Russian minority. But by supporting these countries' NATO bid, Bush is clearly antagonizing the Russians who are already at odds with the United States over positioning of missile defense shield in Eastern Europe.
Although the prospect of NATO membership has proved to be a good carrot for encouraging democracy in the nations that have joined the Western bloc since the end of the Cold War, the strategists at Kremlin see it as a Western effort to belittle Russia's influence in the region. Even as Dmitry Medvedev is to take over the reins of presidency in a couple of weeks now, Kremlin, in all possibility, will continue to pursue the same policies followed relentlessly by Vladimir Putin.
Even before President Bush embarked on his European tour this week, it was clear that he has limited leverage over the Russian leadership, but his limitless passion for the unproven missile defense system has made it easier for the Russian leader to deflect criticism.
Bush is planning to sign a so-called strategic framework when the two hold their final summit at the weekend. Delineating areas of agreement while both presidents are still in office makes perfect sense. But when Bush strongly pleaded the case of Ukraine and Georgia in Kiev, he clearly contradicted the basic premise of a strategic partnership. After seven years in power, President Bush ought to have learned that diplomacy without quid pro quos is meaningless. __


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