Should you buy a new tablet, smartphone or PC now, or should you wait a little while and get a better price for better technology? International Data Corporation (IDC) has released a series of outlooks which give consumers insights into the future of computing hardware.
According to IDC, the worldwide tablet market has witnessed a massive deceleration in 2014, with year-over-year growth slowing to 7.2 percent, down from 52.5 percent in 2013. At the core of this slowdown is the expectation that 2014 will represent the first full year of decline in Apple iPad shipments. Both the iPad and the overall market slowdown do not come as a surprise, as device lifecycles for tablets have continued to lengthen, increasingly resembling those of PCs more than smartphones.
“In the early stages of the tablet market, device lifecycles were expected to resemble those of smartphones, with replacement occurring every two to three years,” said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. “What has played out instead is that many tablet owners are holding onto their devices for more than three years and in some instances more than four years.”
In the last year tablets have become thinner, prices have come down and more models are available.
“Right now we see a lot of pressure on tablet prices and an influx of entry-level products, which ultimately serves Android really well,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, IDC's Research Director for Tablets. “But we also see tablet manufacturers trying to offset this price pressure by focusing on larger screens and cellular-enabled tablets. The next six months should be really interesting.”
For PC manufacturers, times are tough, but they are working hard to attract consumers. IDC projects that global PC shipments to the consumer market will decline five percent in 2014. “In the best case for PCs, we'd see a significant wave of replacements as users who spent on phones and tablets in recent years decide they really need to update their PC. Features like touch or convertibility, as well as Windows 10 could make systems more versatile and appealing, along with lower prices,” said Loren Loverde, IDC Vice President, Worldwide PC Trackers.
Finally, we come to smartphones and again, what was once a booming market will start to slow. IDC noted that worldwide smartphone shipments will reach a total of nearly 1.3 billion units in 2014, representing an increase of 26.3 percent over 2013. But looking ahead for 2015, the year-over-year growth rate is expected to be just 12.2 percent and the slow downwards trend will continue. Smartphone revenues reflect a starker picture, as they will be hard hit by the increasingly cutthroat nature of pricing. That's great for consumers and bad for smartphone vendors.
“The impact of upstart Chinese players in the global market will be reflected in a race to the bottom when it comes to price. While premium phones aren't going anywhere, we are seeing increasingly better specs in more affordable smartphones. Consumers no longer have to go with a top-of-the-line handset to guarantee decent hardware quality or experience,” said Melissa Chau, Senior Research Manager with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
On a worldwide basis, smartphones are expected to have an average selling price (ASP) of $297 worldwide in 2014, dropping to $241 by 2018. Emerging markets such as India will see much lower smartphone prices, as ASPs hit $135 in 2014 and fall to $102 by 2018. From an operating system perspective, Android devices will continue to drive shipment volumes while iOS devices drive revenues. By 2018, Android will control 80 percent of global smartphones shipped and 61 percent of revenues, while iOS will control only 13 percent of volumes and 34 percent of revenues.
