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New Russia push on Syria may not bear fruit
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 27 - 11 - 2014

MOSCOW/BEIRUT — Fresh Russian efforts to encourage Syrian peace talks are unlikely to make progress because Moscow rejects opposition and Western calls for the swift departure of President Bashar Al-Assad.

Moscow has long-supported Assad, including with arms supplies for Syria, but he has become a more important ally for Russia since the Arab Spring protests toppled leaders in the Middle East, some of whom had close ties with Moscow. With its influence in the Middle East weakened and relationship with the West under increasing strain over the conflict in Ukraine, Moscow is trying to restart Syria talks that collapsed in Geneva in February.

Russia says the rise of Islamic State militants, who control large swathes of land in Syria and Iraq, has made it urgent to unite all forces against them. But Western diplomats say Moscow is not offering any new solutions.
Moscow has invited Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moualem to visit this week after a similar trip by a former Syrian opposition chief earlier this month.

"It is important that constructive Syrian opposition forces restart political dialogue with official (representatives of) Damascus in the face of dangerous challenges posed by international terrorism," Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said on Monday according to agency Interfax.

Russia says cooperating with Damascus is indispensable for fighting "terrorists" on the ground. The United States refused to cooperate with Assad in a campaign of US-led strikes on Islamic State and other groups that started in September.

A Western diplomat who tracks Syria said Moscow had not offered anything substantially new. Moscow had only recently repeated a proposal that Assad stay in power for two years with a provisional government, before presidential elections in which he could stand, the diplomat said. The Syrian opposition, and its US and Arab backers want Assad to step down.

"To demand Assad's exit makes no sense now that everyone's main enemy is Islamic State, and a final destabilization of power in Syria can only benefit them," said Fyodor Lukyanov, an analyst with close ties to Russian authorities.

Some diplomats said Moscow was trying to show it was not isolated by the Ukraine conflict.

"This conflict is stalling all US-Russia cooperation or talks on every possible field, including Syria," a diplomat said. "What Russia is trying to do is to show that it is relevant, that it is a player that cannot be bypassed." — Reuters


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