When an average of 13 people have been killed daily in eastern Ukraine despite the 5 September ceasefire, that's an obvious contradiction. It is a striking paradox that since the truce came into force, 957 people have been killed. The figures are the findings of the UN human rights office. The reason for the figures is that even though Ukraine and the separatists came to a deal to halt the violence, the clashes never really ended. The battle for control of Donetsk airport, currently in Ukrainian hands, has raged throughout. When the rebels held their own local elections on 2 November, in defiance of the government in Kiev, both sides accused each other of tearing up the peace deal and a new surge of violence erupted and has not stopped since. The situation has not improved since the G20 summit in Australia during which Western leaders pressed Russian President Vladimir Putin over direct Russian military support for the separatists. For obvious reasons, Putin left the summit early and chose to comment instead that Moscow must prevent a “color revolution” from reaching Russia. That underlined his wariness about Russia being hit by a popular uprising like those in other former Soviet republics. But Putin should be one of the last leaders in the world to worry about a mass uprising from his people. Of course, he has had to be wary of political and social upheaval since the protests against him swept big cities, such as Moscow, but since then he has stifled dissent and persecuted potential rivals to tighten his grip on power. The annexation of Crimea in March and the surge of patriotism he is riding in Russia over Ukraine, coupled with a submissive media, has boosted Putin's popularity at home as well as tamed the opposition. Putin's comments were probably aimed more at his concern over outside interference. However, here too, there is not much the international community can do. A European observer team can do little more than observe troop movements amid the escalating violence. And long forgotten and now in the trash bin are the ineffective sanctions placed on high-level Russian officials and companies linked to state finance, energy and arms. Perhaps the main questions at the heart of this is whether or not Russia wants eastern Ukraine to be stable, and whether Putin is prepared for a resumption of full-scale hostilities. The Kremlin can deny all it wants about supplying troops and sophisticated military hardware to the rebels, but since August, 4,000 Russian citizens have been fighting alongside the rebels. The recent surge in violence has brought fresh reports of troop and artillery movement. Although the UN does not accuse Russia of fanning the violence, it is clear that Moscow is covertly supplying the rebels with military aid. What the UN does not shrink from is announcing a “total breakdown in law and order”, and a lack of any human rights protection for the population under rebel control in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The serious human rights abuses by the armed groups - torture, arbitrary and incommunicado detention, summary executions, forced labor, sexual violence, as well as the destruction and illegal seizure of property - “may amount to crimes against humanity”. Peace seems unlikely as the ceasefire frays and the rhetoric gets ever more hostile. There will be no direct negotiations between Ukraine and the rebels. The ceasefire agreed at the beginning of September only slowed the tempo of the fighting in eastern Ukraine, and sometimes barely that.
