POLITICAL instability is damaging Bosnia's prospects of joining the European Union and causing some officials to worry that the Balkan country could one day slide back into conflict. The former Yugoslav republic, which was divided into a Serb Republic and a Muslim-Croat entity after the 1992-95 Bosnian war that killed about 100,000 people, is run by a weak central government and some Serbs favour secession. Ethnic quarrels were among problems identified by the EU last week in its annual report on Bosnia's progress towards membership of the wealthy bloc. Political tensions are now running so high that some regional experts and leaders say violence could eventually flare again in the country of about four million people. “There could be war,” said Sulejman Tihic, the head of Bosnia's largest Muslim political party and former Muslim member of the tripartite presidency. “A year or two ago I would not have said this is possible.” The Democratization Policy Council, a non-profit group, said in a report last week that renewed conflict was possible and added: “Bosnia has not only stagnated over the past three years - it has been sliding backwards at an accelerating pace.” Tension has mounted over moves taken by Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Milorad Dodik independently of the central government in Sarajevo, saying he seeks economic prosperity and eventual EU membership for his people. Some experts fear Bosnian Muslims might hit back militarily if the Serb Republic's push for state-like powers goes out of control. “War is not going to break out tomorrow, but if this is allowed to continue, it may break out a year from now, or two years from now, or four years from now,” said a foreign diplomat with years of experience of the region. Other experts do not expect renewed conflict, even if tensions are high. Ruling out a return to violence, Haris Silajdzic, the Muslim member of Bosnia's tripartite presidency, said: “It is not dangerous ... It is a quite different situation today (to before the Bosnian war).” Eu report The EU's executive Commission said in its latest report on Bosnia that progress on EU-related reforms had stagnated amid disputes among ethnic leaders. “There has been little consensus on the main priorities. A shared vision on the direction of the country remains necessary,” it said. It also identified corruption and organized crime as problems, saw no progress on constitutional reform and said efforts were needed on movement of goods, persons and services, employment, state aid, energy, environment and statistics Prospects for a sharp improvement could be affected by the global financial crisis - a common stake in economic prosperity that could overcome ethnic division may now be even further off than had been hoped. Many ordinary people in Bosnia are dissatisfied. The official unemployment rate is 40 percent - or about 29 precent when the grey, or unofficial, economy is taken into account, and year-on-year inflation was 8.7 percent in September. Despite this, Bosnia's gross domestic product grew 6.7 percent in 2007 and Bosnia's banking sector is regarded as more stable than some neighbours, according to the World Bank. Economic experts say Bosnia could bring in up to 8 billion euros ($10.32 billion) in the next five to 10 years in energy, telecoms, tourism and other fields if it can achieve more stability. Foreign aid The U.S. State Department says Bosnia has received more than $14 billion in aid since the end of the 1992-95 war. Yet political instability keeps many investors away. In an interview with Reuters last month, Dodik said he did not want to secede from Bosnia. Experts differ on whether his separatist rhetoric is political positioning or true intent, but also see Silajdzic, a Dodik rival, as partly to blame for tensions. Silajdzic has called for the abolition of the Serb Republic. Some officials say the Office of the High Representative (OHR), which oversees the 1995 Dayton peace agreement and has powers to dismiss Bosnian officials and overturn laws, must step in to prevent ethnic squabbles getting out of hand. High Representative Miroslav Lajcak has lobbied European officials in recent weeks to give him more backing and the OHR's role was being reviewed by EU foreign ministers on Monday. Serbia's traditional ally, Russia, and the Serb Republic would like to see the OHR close. But not all regional officials are pessimistic about prospects for Bosnia but acknowledge change is slow. “Bosnia is akin to the hands on a watch. They don't seem to move, but they are. Compared to five or 10 years ago, things have obviously improved,” said Bakir Izetbegovic, deputy leader of the Party of Democratic Action. – Reuters __
