It may seem strange to be writing the political obituary of John McCain a week before the Nov. 4 US election, especially as some opinion polls show him gaining ground and others show that large numbers of people are still unsure about Barack Obama and his message of hope and change. These, however, are strange and troubled times. Only a few weeks ago panicked investors drove the world's financial markets deep underground, and when they burst forth again like Old Faithful, they found the entire global financial landscape changed. Nationalization, socialization, partial or otherwise, was completed in a weekend, and it still remains to be seen where it will end and what the ramifications are to be. At the very least, we are all headed for a global recession of whatever depth and duration with the concomitant loss of jobs and lowering of profits. So, there will be a lot more to think about on Nov 5 than John McCain, and this is as good a time as any to send him on his way, and to ask: What went wrong? Erratic maverick Like a disoriented butterfly, McCain lurched from message to message never staying long with any one of them. If you ask voters to describe McCain, they will tell you that he is a war hero and a maverick. For all the money and months spent creating an image and a message, those are the only two positive themes that McCain has been able to establish in people's minds. In more normal times, these might have been message enough, but when after Labor Day, the economy became the primary issue in the minds of most Americans, it was hard to see how either theme could directly translate into the kind of help people were looking for. In the last two weeks, McCain has made the economy his primary concern. He really has had little choice. However, while spending much time calling Obama a ‘tax and spend liberal,' the only indication that McCain has given of what positive economic steps he would take sounds all too much like a continuation of present policies which most people believe got us into this mess in the first place. The subliminal message that McCain has sent out is of an impulsive, incoherent, older man who gets a kick out of springing surprises on the public. Maverick has morphed into erratic. Palin – Short term gains People working in the Republican campaign, are already drafting proposals to publishers for books they want to write on McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Her shocking selection, rapturously received convention speech, dramatic seclusion, and disastrous interviews, followed by Tina Fey's impersonations, adoring campaign crowds, and most recently issues about her wardrobe and hair stylist (and all of this in only two months time) are fertile ground for a slew of pro-and anti-Palin books. And recent talk of Palin ‘going rogue' can only make one wonder: ‘Whatever next?' But the real question for John McCain is: Did Palin help or hurt the ticket? Just how many votes did McCain gain and lose by selecting her. There may be a more definitive answer when, after the election, number crunchers get to work on the statistics, but for the moment it would seem safe to say that Palin provided the campaign with a sharp short term boost which did not last. She energized the base which McCain was unable to do, but it is doubtful that she brought on board many of the independent voters whom McCain needed in order to win. 48 hours that lost the election. In the months to come, it may be argued that McCain well and truly lost the election in the 48 or so hours during the bailout week when he “suspended” his campaign to fly back to Washington to save the world, and threatened not to attend the first debate until the bailout proposal was finalized. All of this had been prefaced a few days earlier with a declaration that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong,” only to be followed a few hours later by a description of an economy in crisis, and of course it was always common knowledge that McCain had long ago admitted that he really did not know all that much about the economy. The abrupt change of tactics and the surprise kamikaze attack on Washington, so like McCain, were a gamble, a toss of the dice, and McCain lost. He was accused of impeding, not aiding, the bailout talks; he could not convince members of his own party to back the plan; and he famously sat through a high profile meeting on the bailout at the White House saying almost nothing. By the time he finally boarded a plane to attend the debate, he had in only two days branded himself : erratic, impetuous, ineffective, inconsistent and unable to multi-task even at the level of being able to do two things at the same time. This was not a good 48 hours for John McCain, but really you have to ask: What was he thinking of? And didn't he have advisors who could slow him down before he took off on these adventures? Had the world economic crisis been solved overnight when the bailout was finally passed, most of McCain's bad two days might have been forgotten. But as we know, the crisis is still with us and any plan that McCain now puts forth on the economy will always be viewed though the filter of that trip to Washington. It was never to be In the end it was always hard to see how McCain or for that matter any Republican could have won this year. Even before the financial tsunami was unleashed on world markets in September, this was never going to be a good year for a Republican candidate. George Bush's poll numbers are lower than Richard Nixon's when he resigned, and although McCain made every effort to physically separate himself from Bush and through the intervention of a hurricane was able to enjoy a national convention without either Bush or Cheney being present, in the end he was never able to completely sever the political umbilical cord. McCain's declaration at the third debate that he was not George Bush and that if Obama had wanted to run against Bush, he should have done so in 2004, came much too late in the campaign. It is also hard to know if the choice of another vice president would have made much difference. The answer is probably not. It was always going to be a good year for the Democrats. It was always going to be up to Obama to make a mistake or for an October surprise to change the momentum. In the end, Obama was cool and steady, and the surprise came a month early and played to McCain's weakness not his strength. It was only a week or so ago that McCain set the stage for his defeat when asked on Fox News whether he had considered the possibility of losing on Nov 4, he said, “Oh sure. I mean, I don't dwell on it.” “But look, I've had a wonderful life. I have to go back and live in Arizona, and be in the United States Senate representing them, and with a wonderful family,” he added. “I'm the luckiest guy you ever interviewed... Don't feel sorry for John McCain, and John McCain will be concentrating on not feeling sorry for himself.” So perhaps rather than asking what went wrong, we should just leave it at that and take John McCain at his word. He will put the 2008 campaign behind him, return to the Senate, and put his name of some bills that we will be able to remember him by. And on Nov 5, we need to put one of the longest election campaigns in American history behind us, and Barack Obama needs start addressing the September surprise that helped put him in the White House. __
