Is it true that India's Muslims are in danger if, as is widely predicted, Hindu nationalist leader Narendra Modi becomes the country's next prime minister? The firebrand politician when chief minister of Gujarat was widely condemned for doing little or nothing during the 2002 religious riots in which well over 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, were murdered by Hindu thugs. There are certainly some among the 140 million Indian Muslims who fear that the election of Modi could spell real danger by encouraging the street-level bigots among his supporters to stoke up communal tensions. Though nodding to the risk, Western commentators are focusing on the radical financial and business reforms that Modi appears to promise. India's much vaunted take-off toward economic superpower status has thus far failed through a toxic mix of corruption, regulatory inhibitions and sheer incompetence. The great promise and the substantial failure to achieve it have effectively both occurred on the watch of the Congress Party. There also continues to be an international fascination with “the greatest democratic exercise in the world”. There are some 814 million voters out of a population of 1.2 billion who over the next five weeks will all have been able to go to voting stations around this vast and diverse country. Counting of the votes ought to be verified and completed some time in May, after which will come the expected political horse trading as the leading party, most likely to be Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, seeks to build a coalition. Alarmed at the prospect of a Modi government, Muslim leaders have openly urged their community to support the Congress Party. Yet there are some doubts that this clarion call will be widely heeded. Many Muslims, not least in the business community, have become fed up, both with the failure of the outgoing government to fire up fresh strong economic growth and also to support the importance of the Muslim contribution to the wider social and economic fabric of the country. Indeed it may very well be that a significant proportion of the Muslim vote will go to the new anti-establishment Aam Adami Party. It might also be that many voters, not simply Muslims, will register their disgust with the whole political process by recording a non-vote. For the first time in this election, citizens will see at the bottom of their ballot papers the option to vote for “None of the Above”. However, if "None of the Above" records the most votes, the victory will go to the candidate with the next highest total, which means that this remains a relatively toothless way of registering despair at the failures of the entire political establishment. Analysts have calculated that Muslim voters have the potential to influence the outcome in around eight or nine percent of the 543 parliamentary seats. This could prove important if the MPs elected in some 50 seats were able to exert leverage in the construction of a Modi coalition. Delhi wiseacres are saying that Modi is happy to campaign on a Hindu nationalist platform, but once in power, he will moderate his chauvinistic approach and rein in BJP hotheads. This may be wishful thinking. Even if Modi himself is politically astute and essentially merely a moderate in search of power, the intolerant and often violent hardcore of BJP supporters may not be easily controlled. One way or another it seems that Modi is riding a tiger in his quest for high office.
