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Who is provoking whom?
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 27 - 03 - 2014

It sometimes pays to turn the political telescope around and look through the other end. North Korea has been demonstrating what it imagines is its technical prowess by firing off a string of short-range missiles and then Tuesday two medium-range rockets capable of delivering warheads to Japan.
Washington has described these rocketry demonstrations as “provocative”. Pyongyang's action has clearly been timed to coincide with the regular joint military exercises held by the US military with its allies in South Korea. Are these maneuvers of themselves not in fact provocative? It depends on which end of the telescope is being used.
One question that surely needs answering is: What is the purpose of having US and South Korean troops train together? At a tactical level, the clear response is that joint exercises are important to keep allies up to speed with each other and to confirm the efficacy of military plans and tasking. At a strategic level, there seems to be far less justification. First and foremost, Washington and Seoul will be imagining that they are demonstrating both their capability and their willingness to confront North Korean forces in the event of a repeat invasion; North Korea first attacked the South in 1950 and the US led a United Nations force to counter them.
Yet who in their right mind imagines that the United States is not only committed but perfectly capable of deploying considerable military might against an invading North Korean army? This surely requires no demonstration by holding military exercises close to the truce line along the 38th parallel, where this still officially ongoing war came to an end in 1953. Likewise, if South Korean troops need to check out operational procedures with their US allies, there are plenty of places in the United States where individual units could undergo join training.
The North Korean leadership doubtless appreciates the reality that however inconvenient and frustrating Pyongyang may be, there is no likelihood whatsoever of a South Korean invasion of the North backed by US military might. But that is not the point. The regime survives on a diet of paranoia which is based on just that prediction. Thus the state is highly militarized and is dominated by the need to warn its dragooned and closely-monitored citizenry to be in a state of constant readiness to repel an attack.
The considerable irony is that a film of these joint US-South Korean maneuvers is being run on North Korean TV to reinforce the urgent warning that an assault could happen at any moment. Does Washington fully understand what a propaganda gift it is making to the repressive regime of Kim Jong-un? It is effectively legitimizing the counter-display of the North's martial prowess with the salvos of rockets it has been firing off in recent days.
Yet can Washington be so dense as not to appreciate that it is contributing to a strengthening of a regime that it loathes and would rather see disappear? Can it not also see that as, by its own actions, it stokes confrontation with Pyongyang, it is reinforcing China's role and importance as the sole supporter of this economically illiterate post-Stalinist state? If, in fact, Washington is perfectly aware of the impact of its behavior, then what is its real aim as regards Pyongyang and indeed the ultimate reunification of Korea?


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