It is rare for a country to take sides in the presidential elections of another country. Rarer still is when the candidate in question has not yet even officially run. But by endorsing Defense Minister Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi for president of Egypt, Russian President Vladimir Putin has committed himself to not only a good working relationship with El-Sisi, who is regarded as a shoo-in to become the next president. In aligning himself with the new Egyptian government, Putin is also starting a significant paradigm shift which could see alliances realigned in the Middle East. The former Soviet Union was Egypt's main arms supplier until 1972 when former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat suddenly kicked out Soviet advisors by the thousands and began allying himself more closely with the United States. Following the signing of the 1978 US-backed Camp David peace accords, then the historic establishment of Egyptian-Israeli diplomatic ties in 1979, the US became the Egyptian government's greatest backer, supplying more economic and military assistance to Egypt than any other country in the world, save Israel. However, that partnership of 35 years began to crack in July 2013 when the military stepped in — following a populist uprising — to remove Islamist Mohamed Morsi as president. Washington did not outright condemn what others called a military coup; it did, however, pressure the interim government to quickly hold elections and show restraint in dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood. In August, the Pentagon canceled military drills with the Egyptian army and two months later, portions of the US aid package were suspended. Enter Russia. Moscow is keen to increase its influence in the Middle East to prove that it is still a major player on the international stage. With relations between Cairo and Washington currently strained, Russia sees an opportunity to play a more prominent role in the region. As Russia is looking to take advantage of strains between Cairo and Washington, for its part, Egypt is keen to show the United States that it's not reliant on America for assistance. Hence, the talk of an arms deal between Russia and Egypt worth $2 billion. So, both Russia and Egypt believe they have much to gain from closer ties. El-Sisi's candidacy for the presidency, the elections of which are likely slated for April, seems to be all but inevitable. Although other political luminaries have been floated as possible presidential contenders, El-Sisi's star outshines all. Indeed, he is miles ahead of the others in terms of popularity. The field marshal is endowed with charisma and aura akin to that which surrounded Gamal Abdel-Nasser. Certainly, the El-Sisi songs and chocolates are a phenomenon unseen since Nasser's days. Also, the appeal of his oratory, with its Egyptian patriotic tenor with tinges of Arab nationalism, fits the bill, at least according to the Nasserist-minded groups. Whether El-Sisi is a successful president is very much up in the air. He has a daunting task in trying to rescue the economy and inject a measure of stability. The country has dire and complex economic and social problems. The despair that fuelled the 2011 uprising has deepened in the last three years, at the same time as political polarization has sharpened. An insurgency has moved its attacks beyond the Sinai Peninsula into Cairo. How well El-Sisi does is not today's issue. It is that Putin has thrown his weight behind a presidential bid by El-Sisi, voicing hope that ties would strengthen after the elections. All signs say they will.
