A woman carries a sign in celebration of the declaration of self-governance by the province of Cyrenaica, in Benghazi. Almost every week, Prime Minister Ali Zidan either tries to cajole the fighters choking off Libya's crude exports or threatens to break their blockade by force. Neither tactic has worked. – Reuters TRIPOLI – Almost every week, Prime Minister Ali Zidan either tries to cajole the fighters choking off Libya's crude exports or threatens to break their blockade by force. Neither tactic has worked. Their leader, IbrahimAl-Jathran, dug in at ports his men seized in August, says he will sell Libya's oil himself and carve out a semi-state unless the eastern region gets a fairer share of the revenues. The mutiny, which has shut three ports accounting for around half the OPEC member's exports, has helped send global crude prices up and they could rise much further if any armed clash inflicts long term damage. But lawmakers, oil sources and diplomats say Zidan and Jathran are not on the brink of war, and that if the prime minister can survive a political crisis in the capital he may win the upper hand in the war of attrition over oil exports. “There is no chance of Jathran exporting oil himself,” said John Hamilton at CBI energy consultancy. “He can continue the blockade, inflicting damage on the government's credibility and finances, which gives him a high profile. But his autonomous government has no finances or credibility.” It is a fragile moment. Zidan, from a small, liberal party, has survived an attempted vote of no confidence in the Congress, split between Islamists and his backers in the nationalist party, National Forces Alliance. But he was further pressured by the resignation last week of at least four Islamist party cabinet ministers in protest over his government. His only source of strength, for now, appears to be the lack of a viable alternative premier. Two years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, the struggle over exports is just one of the complex, inter-lacing disputes among heavily-armed former rebels, militias and powerful tribes emerging in the flux of post-revolt Libya. Its constitution undrafted, parliament deadlocked, and its army still in the works, Zidan's government often finds itself at the mercy of gun diplomacy. The oil dispute is costing the government billions of dollars in lost revenues and Jathran, still a symbol for many federalists in the east, where the anti-Gaddafi rebellion began, is holding his ground. But Zidan is waiting him out, trying to divide the rebel ranks through tribal mediation in the hope that Jathran, whose support among the federalists on the ground is fraying, runs out of funds to keep his fighters on side. “Everyone is looking for a face-saving way out of this,” said one Libyan oil industry veteran. — Reuters
