Dr. Lana El Chaar* The dialogue on the shifts in energy sector dynamics continues to take center stage globally. With demand for oil recording continued growth in the emerging markets, particularly in China and India, and the shale gas revolution altering the landscape of the US energy market, there is increased focus in the Middle East on how the effect of these forces of energy demand and supply will play out regionally. In Saudi Arabia, which has the world's largest hydrocarbon reserves, the debate assumes a different perspective particularly because of the growing domestic demand for oil to meet the increasing requirement for electricity.
With an average 1.85 percent population growth per annum, and increased investment in infrastructure development, the Kingdom witnesses a growth in demand for electricity at the rate of 7 percent annually. Between 2006 and 2011, the Kingdom's per capita energy consumption increased by 5.7 percent on average per year. Over the same period, the Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) generating capacity has grown by annual average of 8 percent with total peak loads gaining by an average of 9.14 percent. In the last two decades, the Saudi economy energy intensity increased by over 100 percent, whereas China and the US decreased by 67 percent and 33 percent, respectively, with the consumption heavily dependent on the fuel produced.
In 2011, the Kingdom produced around 3.3 billion barrel of crude where 2.42 billion were exported. Some 880 million barrels were consumed domestically. It is estimated that the Kingdom's energy production will be heavily utilized inwardly in 2030 if energy consumption is not reduced. Moreover, the country already domestically consumes all its natural gas production, at about 9.6 billion cubic feet (ft3) per day. To meet the growing demand, major investments in upgrades and expansion of the electrical grid are required. It is expected that between SR20 and SR40 billion per year will be invested in the electrical infrastructure in the coming years to meet the demand for power. One of the strategic approaches to address the growing demand for power, which puts pressure on the oil industry to divert resources for domestic consumption as against exports, is to focus on promoting the efficiency of the energy infrastructure. With about 500 GE turbines generating more than 50 per cent of Saudi Arabia's power, one of the key considerations of GE, over its 80 years of partnerships in the Kingdom, has been to address local requirements effectively. Taking into consideration the prevailing energy landscape, GE conducted a detailed supply side energy-efficiency study, which clearly identifies solutions that could support the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia reduce its fuel consumption while providing simultaneously higher output power. The study also evaluated the environment impact of inefficient energy consumption, which plays a major role in global warming. Saudi Arabia's carbon dioxide emissions per capita are among the highest in the world at 16.5 tons, according to European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 2011 report. The Enerdata, Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2011, reports that the Kingdom's carbon dioxide emissions from electricity and heat production in 2010 hit 400 million metric tons. To address the growing demand for oil, and to counter the environmental impact, increasing the energy sector efficiency can play a central role. Energy efficiency can reduce carbon dioxide emissions as well as the dependence on oil and gas, and ultimately, end-user energy costs. It will also lead to considerable financial saving: An 8 percent increase in energy efficiency practices will help save over SR50 billion over ten years. It is also estimated that a 10 percent reduction in oil consumption within the kingdom in 2030 will result in the release of 255 million barrels for export achieving additional revenue of $28 billion/year.
To meet the Saudi government's goal to achieve an energy savings target of 20 percent by 2020, it is important to adopt both energy conservation and energy efficiency actions. Energy conservation primarily relates to limiting energy use, while energy efficiency is defined as solutions that enable the same or potentially greater benefit, using less energy to produce same output.
This covers increasing the efficiency of energy production (supply-side efficiency) or improving the efficiency of energy use (demand-side efficiency). By increasing efficiency, less fuel is required to generate each kWh, or more power is extracted out of every molecule of oil. Hence, high efficiency creates less waste, yielding higher output for any given input. A central strategy to attain supply-side efficiency is to further optimize plant operations. According to GE's studies, a saving of 640 MWs can be achieved by uprates of existing gas turbines to 202 GE GT Frames 7E and 7EA, while some 3,390 Million British Thermal Units per hour (MMBTU/hr) of fuel savings can be achieved from uprates to 202 GE GT Frames 7E & 7EA in addition to 640 MW output. From strengthening efficiency at the plant level to reducing the use of fuel resources, GE has been focused on delivering solutions to support the Kingdom's energy sector. This is part of our commitment to the Kingdom. We firmly believe that for a sustainable future, timely steps to strengthen energy sector efficiency are imperative. A collaborative effort that involves all stakeholders will enable the Kingdom to not only set new benchmarks in power generation efficiency but also to serve as the regional model in sustainable growth. *The writer is Product Line Manager, GE Power Generation Services
